PPIC Prop 8 Poll: Republicans and Evangelicals Motivated to Win

By Robert Cruickshank

The Public Policy Institute of California released a poll today about voter decision-making on Prop 8 (and some other props, including 1A and 4). Their conclusion is that Prop 8 passed because its Republican and evangelical supporters were highly motivated to pass it, whereas Prop 8 opponents lacked a similar sense of urgency. From the PPIC press release:

• Evangelical or born-again Christians (85%) were far more likely than others (42%) to vote yes.

• Three in four Republicans (77%) voted yes, two in three Democrats (65%) voted no, and independents were more closely divided (52% yes, 48% no).

• Supporters of Republican presidential candidate John McCain were far more likely than those who backed President-elect Barack Obama to vote yes (85% vs. 30%).

• Latinos (61%) were more likely than whites (50%) to vote yes; and 57 percent of Latinos, Asians, and blacks combined voted yes. (Samples sizes for Asians and blacks are too small to report separately.)

• Voters without a college degree (62%) were far more likely than college graduates (43%) to vote yes.

• While most voters (65%) consider the outcome of Proposition 8 to be very important, the measure's supporters (74%) are far more likely than those who voted no (59%) to view the outcome as very important.

The poll also indicated that support for same-sex marriage was split, 47% in favor, 48% against, and 5% opposed. That suggests to me that the Yes on 8 campaign's lying ads about the effects of Prop 8 had some effect on voter behavior.

Still, if the poll's conclusions about voter motivation are accurate, then it adds more fuel to the criticisms of the No on 8 campaign for not having done an effective job in mobilizing its own base to vote, and not doing a good enough job of creating a sense of urgency around the proposition - and in reaching out to other communities, including communities of color. If and when this goes back to the ballot we can expect the anti-marriage forces to be highly motivated to vote. Our side, the supporters of marriage equality, need to be motivated as well.

Comments

Posted by: Rick DeLano at December 4, 2008 10:06 AM

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