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California Tax Changes: Math versus Strategy
By Annette Nellen
Challenging economic times created new budget problems for California. On November 6, 2008, Governor Schwarzenegger called the legislature into a special session to find $11 billion. They didn’t find it! Now the new session of legislators will need to craft a budget solution.
Meanwhile, the Legislative Analysts’ Office projects the upcoming shortfall to be $28 billion.
Basic math – adding and subtracting to reach $28 billion, is often the reason underlying many of the proposals to address the shortfall. Unfortunately, this approach doesn’t solve the problem for the long term, and can make it worse. To fix our budget problem we need to use less math and more strategy, particularly with respect to tax law changes.
The math approach to addressing budget problems typically involves finding an assortment of spending cuts and tax rate increases that add up to the target shortfall figure. The math approach is like solving a puzzle with too many pieces. Each piece represents a dollar amount that can be obtained via a particular spending cut, borrowing option, or tax law change. Find an assortment of pieces that add up to the target number and the budget puzzle is solved. However, the effects of particular combinations of pieces on future budgets, the economy, the state’s business climate, daily lives and our environment are easily overlooked in the math approach. Also, the puzzle pieces usually do not include changes that increase spending or decrease a tax rate even though they may help in reaching a solution.
The math approach is often used for its apparent simplicity, familiarity with the approach, and because it is likely to take less time than the strategy approach.
While the strategy approach also involves math, it mostly involves consideration of how a tax system and spending can support a state’s goals. The strategy approach allows for a stronger fiscal structure that supports, rather than obstructs, California’s goals.
Here are examples of how the strategy approach could identify tax system changes that help generate the requisite revenue while also helping California reach its goals in three key areas: economic, societal and environmental.
Economic: States want good-paying jobs and that requires a favorable business climate. In judging a business climate, one of many factors a business considers is taxes. At 10.3%, California has the highest individual income tax rate among the states. And, California ranks in the top ten of states with the highest corporate income and sales tax rates. These high rates harm California’s business climate.
The math approach easily leads to tax rate increases to address a budget shortfall while ignoring the harmful effects to the business climate. In contrast, the strategic approach looks for ways to lower high tax rates. Rates could be lowered without creating new budget shortfalls by eliminating special deductions, exemptions and credits that are outdated, favor one group over another or are overly complex. Such changes also help improve the business climate by making the tax system more simple and fair.
Societal: States want a decent standard-of-living for their residents. To help achieve this, tax systems should be designed to be fair. Challenges that hinder decent living standards for Californians include high living costs and millions living in poverty.
The math approach of tax rate hikes moves California farther behind in reaching its societal goals. For example, a higher sales tax rate is more detrimental to lower income households than higher income ones.
The strategic approach examines current tax structures for inequities. For example, rather than increasing the sales tax rate, it should be lowered while broadening the base to include personal services, entertainment and intangibles. The present exemption for these items, which are more likely to be purchased by higher income households, creates inequities that are made worse with a rate increase.
A strategic approach might also consider a refundable tax credit to assist low-income households. Currently, the federal government and many states use an earned income tax credit to improve living standards.
Environmental: California has established aggressive goals for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The tax law can help in reaching these goals. Burning fossil fuels is the chief cause of greenhouse gas emissions. Taxes that increase the cost of fossil fuels will decrease their consumption (a phenomenon recently illustrated when gas prices increased). Such taxes also cause polluters to pay for the damage they cause.
While the math approach could lead to an increase in the gas tax rate, the strategic approach would also consider new taxes, such as an oil severance tax (currently proposed by Governor Schwarzenegger to bring California in line with other states, not necessarily for its relevance to California’s environmental goals) and some type of carbon tax. For example, instead of increasing an already high income or sales tax rate, a utility tax could be imposed on households that use utilities beyond what is used for a 1,200 square foot home with four inhabitants. Or a gas guzzler tax could be imposed on vehicles that get less than a specified number of miles per gallon.
While the math approach can address California’s budget problems in the short-term, it will not resolve them for the long-term or improve our tax system. Changes to our tax system must be identified using the strategy approach so that the system helps rather than hinders achievement of state goals and provides an appropriate and sustainable fiscal structure for the state.
Annette Nellen, CPA, Esq. is a professor of accounting and taxation at San José State University. For more information on California and federal tax reform, see www.cob.sjsu.edu/nellen_a/TaxReform/21st_century_taxation.htm
Comments
I'm a senior estimator for a large construction company. The projects that I work on are located here in California. Governor Schwarzenegger has proposed raising the taxes an additional 1.5%. This creates a problem when we're attempting to budget construction projects that can take up to 36 months to build. Do we include the current tax rate or add 1.5% to our bids? On a competitively bid project, the difference between the 1st and 2nd place bids is often less than 1.5%. Depending on what we decide to do we could end up submitting a bid that isn't competitive or we could be at risk of needing to pay more tax then we budgeted for. Hopefully our elected officials can come to a speedy resolution!
Posted by: Steven Kearns at December 5, 2008 12:35 PM
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