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Mythbusting the African American Vote and Prop 8

By Robert Cruickshank

In the days after Proposition 8's passage, much was made of a CNN Exit Poll showing 70% of African Americans voted for Prop 8. That poll had a number of problems including a small sample size. But the damage had been done, and it soon became conventional wisdom that black voters made the difference, that Obama brought out a huge wave of black anti-gay voters, etc.

But a further review of the evidence, more accurate exit polling, and academic analysis suggests that the 70% figure is way off, as David Mixner reports:

“Dr. Fernando Guerra of Loyola's Levy Center for the Study of Los Angeles did a far more extensive poll than CNN and found that the 70% figure was way too high. The figure is closer to 57% (still not acceptable) but a long way from the 70%. Other models that I have been running in an attempt to get the facts and not the emotions show the latter a more likely figure.

“The other data that appears to be emerging (BUT yet to be totally verified) is that African-Americans who early voted (which was a huge number) voted YES while those on election day voted NO. Remember we did not do extensive campaigning in many of the African-American precincts until the final week or so which was long after tens of thousands had already voted. Our campaign was slow to use Obama's opposition to Proposition Eight which he gave the day after the initiative qualified five months before the election.”

That explanation makes much more sense than anything else I've seen. Early voters tend to be older and it would make sense if some of them in the African American community were strongly associated with Yes on 8 churches. Once the No on 8 campaign finally got its act somewhat together and did outreach to African Americans, we saw the rewards on Election Day.

Ultimately this reminds us how cheap, stupid, and misguided the scapegoating of African Americans over Prop 8 has been. Prop 8's passage revealed that the marriage equality movement has a lot of outreach to do in this state - to older voters, voters living in "red California," to some Latinos and African Americans but also to numerous white voters (if whites had voted strongly No, this discussion would be moot), to Asian and Pacific Islanders, to some religious groups, including LDS Californians.

When the next campaign happens we will be sure to not make these same mistakes. Outreach is going to happen early and often. Just as Barack Obama took his campaign to red America - organizing in places Democrats never before thought they could win, reaching out to voters Dems often ignored - so too must the Prop 8 campaign adopt an inclusive and assertive organizing strategy, mobilizing our base and doing outreach in every community that did not vote strongly enough for marriage equality.

Robert Cruickshank is a historian, activist, and teacher living in Monterey. He is a contributing editor at Calitics.com and works for the Courage Campaign, in addition to teaching political science at Monterey Peninsula College. Currently he is completing his Ph.D. dissertation in US history, on progressive politics in San Francisco in the 1960s and 1970s. A native Californian, he was raised in Orange County and educated at UC Berkeley.

Posted on November 20, 2008

Comments

Voting yes on 8 had nothing to do with skin color, it had more to do with preachers spewing this from the pulpit. I find it fascinating that the majority of instances I read about the 70% number is from Mormons asking why the gay community is protesting them rather than African Americans. After skapegoating gays, the Mormon church is now trying to direct that anger against African Americans. The Mormons are nothing if not consistent.

Posted by: GG at November 20, 2008 11:58 AM

It passed.
Deal with it.
The voters do not want a subculture of self-abuse included in social policy making.

Posted by: rf at November 20, 2008 02:12 PM

I really appreciate this article. I'm a Black woman an organized against a similar ballot initiative in another state. Too often the outreach to Black communities by mainstream pro-marraige equality groups is non-existent or too little too late.

I'd like to also point out another statistic. Queer folks voted for McCain 27% vs. Bush 23% and Obama 70% vs. Kerry 77%. In my personal opinion, Obama had a far more "queer-friendly" platform than McCain yet many Queer voters still didn't warm up to him.

I think this shows that there is a lot of work to be done to build stronger, more real partnerships. There needs to be stronger dialogue around queer issues in Black communities, and a stronger dialogue around racial justice issue in the Queer community.

Posted by: Jennifer at November 23, 2008 12:48 AM

In checking the dictionary:

queer (kwir) adj 1. odd; strange; eccentric. 2, (offensive) homosexual...

Jennifer, I haven't heard that term used to describe the Gay community in quite a while. Perhaps the dictionary description of the word is why...

Many Blacks and Latino's embrace religion more tightly than other races. It is no stretch to say they voted in large numbers for Prop 8.

Nifty verbiage here, "...and found that the 70% figure was way too high. The figure is closer to 57% (still not acceptable) but a long way from the 70%."

Is a 13% difference, even if accurate, a "long way" between 70and 57%? Regardless, both are majorities and more so than many campaigns are decided upon (51% to 49%, etc.)

Besides, didn't Obama say he was against Gay marriage too?

Sounds more like "damage control" to allude with no real evidence that blacks or minorities in general and Gay's are doing "Ok" in the liberal camp regardless of Prop 8...

Posted by: Jay Gould at November 24, 2008 04:34 PM

You all claim you are all for free speech, but that is a lie. You don't have any respect for anyone who doesn't believe like you do. There are many Christians who try to live by the Bible. The Bible expressly forbids homosexuality. Check out Sodom and Gomorrah, say what you want, God burnt it down because of that. I don't really care who is gay or not, just stop talking about it all day. I don't want to hear about anyone's sexual preference. Leave that crap at home. Find something else to talk about. I'm so glad I don't live in CA and have to deal with all this craziness. You all have no respect for anyone who has a different view. At least realize everyone is different.

Posted by: Lance Bass at November 24, 2008 06:41 PM

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