It’s Turnout, Baby! California Field Poll Shows Many Races, Including Proposition 8, Congress, and State Legislative Races Will Be Decided by Day of Election Voters

No Partying Until the Finish Line at 8 PM—Pacific Standard Time

Today’s Precinct Voters Will be More Democratic—Obama Tidal Wave in California May Duplicate Post Watergate Election Sweep—But Only If Record Turnout Forecasted Becomes Reality

By Frank D. Russo

When you finish reading this story, do yourself, your kids, and the state of California a big favor. History is in the making today and we may get a glimmer or even a razor sharp picture by the time most folks get off of work that Barack Obama will be the next President of the United States—that one. Smile, cry tears of joy, hug someone. But remember the important races that will depend on making sure there is a heavy turnout all the way from 6 to 8 p.m. and that we provide comfort and relief for those who are standing in line late in the day and encouragement to do whatever is needed to make sure their votes count from the top of the ticket to the bottom.

There will be exhausted workers in campaign headquarters around the state later today—they could use some reinforcement—your help to get the vote out. So, after you’ve made sure all your friends, family, and coworkers have voted, get down to your local headquarters and help get the final votes out. A record 13.6 million Californians are forecast to vote-- more than a million over the numbers who voted in the record setting last presidential election in 2004. That’s a 78.9% turnout predicted by Field. We need to make sure this happens. I’d like to see us crack 80%.

National attention, and a lot of out of state money, has been devoted to California Proposition 8, which would write into our state constitution discrimination and eliminate the right of same sex couples to marry. If for no other reason, take the extra step of getting the California vote out later today.

There also will be a huge impact—I cannot state this more clearly—on Congressional races never before competitive but now in play after the last 8 years and the Obama tsunami which is forecast to hit California.

Here is why this is so important. Information from today’s Field Poll shows that those who have already voted—by mail or in early voting are more likely to be more Republican, conservative, and older. Even in this almost half of California voters who have already voted by the time you are reading this article, Obama-Biden will have a lead of 51% to 37%. But it gets better—the day of election voters who will cast ballots in their precincts—and may have to wait in line—break for Obama 58% to 31%.

Day of election voters prefer Democratic Congressional candidates by a margin of 53.1% to 25.2% over Republicans. Amongst the group that has already voted, Field gives the Democratic candidate generic candidate for Congress a 47.9% to 31.9% advantage. That’s great—but there’s a 10 point swing for Democratic candidates in getting our vote out today over those who have already voted and that is going to be key in those pink or red districts and will provide the margin of victory in those that are at all close. (You can find this in Table 37 of the cross-tabs—the entrails of the Field Poll from the Sacramento Bee, if you wish to check it out.)

Comments

Posted by: Richard Holober at November 4, 2008 09:12 AM

Posted by: LauraK at November 4, 2008 10:10 AM

Posted by: David Diebel at November 4, 2008 10:52 AM

Posted by: Kris at November 4, 2008 01:24 PM

Posted by: jay bell at November 4, 2008 06:58 PM

Posted by: meganA at November 5, 2008 09:13 AM

Get Email Updates

Want the California Progress Report by email? Once a week, we'll send you the latest and greatest headlines.