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California Energy and Fuel Ballot Props 7 and 10 Will Be Defeated if the Voters Know What They are Voting On

Despite Near Universal Opposition Out of State Billionaires Have Edge on Prop 10 and a Slim Chance on Prop 7 According to Field Poll

frankrusso-small.jpg By Frank D. Russo

I have lumped these two ballot measures, California Propositions 7 and 10 together because they are both the creatures of two out of state billionaires who jetted in and qualified them with paid signature gatherers without a significant base of support within the state. While they superficially sound good, with visions of pinwheels and renewable energy dancing in the heads of some Californians due to advertising and the very titles that appear on the ballot, one of them is terribly written and the other is an outright pickpocket of the California treasury.

They are just two of the 12 statewide measures on the ballot, competing with the historic presidential election that by all accounts will draw a record number of Californians to the polls. They are overshadowed by Proposition 8 on same sex marriage and other hot button issues and candidates. The breakdown of the most recent California Field polls released late last week show a pattern that many voters do not know what they are voting on. It’s not surprising given everything else that is on the ballot.

Prop 7, the “Solar and Clean Energy Act” described on its website as a “historic and bold step forward that individual Californians can take now to fight global warming and end our dependence on foreign oil” lists was written and bankrolled by an Arizona billionaire. It appears to be headed for defeat in the results of the Field Poll released last week, which show it trailing 39% to 43%, with those who have already voted going against it by a margin of 49% to 43%.

Prop 7, is opposed by every major environmental group in California, by the California Democratic Party and the California Republican Party—and our state’s Green, Libertarian, and Peace and Freedom parties to boot. Take a look at the endorsers on their website and you will see that you do not get to individuals until the second page of those opposing Prop 7.

Then take a look at the list on the “Yes on 7” site and you will see only individuals, many of them with asterisks indicating the organizations they are with or were affiliated with are only there for identification.

There is just no comparison. Aligned against Prop 7 are longstanding membership environmental groups representing millions of Californians including the California League of Conservation Voters, Center for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Technologies, Coalition for Clean Air, Environment California, Environmental Defense Fund, Natural Resources Defense Council, Sierra Club California, and Union of Concerned Scientists.

You also have both labor and businesses in opposition with the California Labor Federation joined by many individual statewide unions and the California Chamber of Commerce, Maufacturers, Business Roundtable, and the like also opposed. And you have longstanding consumer groups such as the Consumer Federation of California on the no side as well.

The more voters get to know about Prop 7, the more likely they are to oppose it. When Field first polled voters about it in July, it had at first blush, tremendous appeal and was ahead 63% to 27% with just 13% of voters saying they were undecided. As of Field latest survey, taken between October 18 and 28, it was going down 39% to 43% with an even larger 18% undecided. The trend appears apparent, and according to Mark DiCamillo, the director of the Field Poll, trends such as this almost always signal further eroding of support.

Amongst those who had heard of Prop 7, it was being defeated by a wider 46% to 41%. Those who were not aware of it, opposed it but more narrowly, with 35% saying they would vote for it if the election were held today and 37% saying they would vote no.

Yet take a look at the numbers behind the 39% yes and 43% no overall results in Friday’s Field Poll and you will see Democrats supporting Prop 7 by 42% to 35%, Republicans opposing it 29% to 60%, and non-partisan/others supporting it 47% to 37%. Conservatives oppose it 54% to 28%, but self described “middle-of-the-road” voters are in favor by 48% to 37% and liberals are divided 39% to 39%. There is support from the youngest voters (46% to 35% in the 18 to 34 year olds) and a direct slide with age as those 50 and above oppose it by very wide margins.

Those who had already voted as of the time of Field’s survey were going against Prop 7 by 43% to 49% and it is expected to lose in the 47% of voters who are voting early or by mail by a hefty 47% no to 38% yes. It is the day of election voters—those who cast ballots in precincts—who are keeping this close, going for it by 42% to 40%, with the margin of error of the poll.

I can full well understand opposition from older, conservative, and Republican voters in light of business opposition to Prop 7. But clearly the unified opposition of environmental groups and the Democratic Party is not getting through to some Democrats. And those in the middle, including non-partisan voters, may not have the benefit of knowing of the widespread opposition to Prop 7. I suspect—or at least hope--they will know more about this and other measures if they will do just a little research or read the Voter Information Guide sent out by the California Secretary of State that has pro and con arguments and links to the campaigns sites themselves.

Proposition 10--T. Boone Picken's $5 Billion Bond

The pattern is much the same on Prop 10—T. Boone Picken’s $5 billion alternative fuel vehicle bond measure that will help the bottom line of his energy holdings and is financed by millions from these companies. But it is ahead—resonating with California voters an octave higher with 49% support and 39% opposition in yesterday’s release of the Field Poll.

This also is opposed by a wide array of environmental, labor, business, and consumer groups. Take a look at the No on 10 Coalition from their site, and you will see the California League of Conservation voters, Sierra Club California, even more consumer groups including the Consumer Federation of California, Consumer Watchdog, The Utilities Reform Network (TURN), Utility Consumers’ Action Network (UCAN), and CARS the Consumers for Automobile Reliability and Safety aligned in opposition. You have the California Chamber of Commerce joined by the California Labor Federation, and even the California League of Women Voters in opposition.

On the yes side, check out their site, you have once again some individuals but really no organizational support.

The one difference is that the oppposition on Prop 10 does not have significant funds to get their message out--and T. Boone Pickens and companies have bankrolled the yes side to the tune of $19 million and counting.

So, based on the superficial title and the wonderful feel good colorful ads, Field’s poll shows it ahead with Democrats and non-partisan others and losing with Republicans. It garners liberal support and middle of the road support and opposition by conservatives. And there is that direct age correlation with younger voters going for it and those 50 and above going against it. Field shows those already voted as of the date of their survey, voting no by a 48% to 43% margin those expected to vote early or by mail divided, and precinct voters on the day of election favoring it 51% to 35%. Hopefully, by election day those precinct voters will have read or considered more about Prop 10.

You can read our articles on Propositions 7 and 10 and, of course, go to the Voters’ Guide issued by the Secretary of State’s office for more information, or read the 2008 Progressive Voter Guide from the Courage Campaign which is short and easy to read and , has a handy chart of recommendations from numerous leading progressive organizations across California and a mobile phone guide that you can easily take into your polling place and send to your friends.

Be well informed, rely on many sources of information and do some research as the future of our state depends on wise votes on many little noticed or understood ballot propositions.

Posted on November 02, 2008

Comments

Frank, I love your work normally and your website. But you follow the lead of almost every writer on Prop 7 in simply conceding to the groups in opposition to Prop 7, without doing your own analysis. Prop 7 is in fact quite well-written, albeit complex (by necessity given the complexity of current CA energy policy). In fact, it largely follows the recommendations of a 2006 Energy Commission review of CA's key renewable energy law.

My organization, the Community Environmental Council, has endorsed Prop 7 as, on balance, quite good. We performed an independent analysis, in consultation with proponents and opponents. We have not received any compensation from the Prop 7 campaign, and nor will we accept such compensation.

In quick summary, Prop 7 provides a number of powerful incentives for more renewable energy like wind, solar, geothermal and biomass power. It also provides for potentially higher penalties against utilities for non-compliance. It does provide some additional exemptions from the higher penalties, but because it's primarily about incentives, this shouldn't be viewed as a fatal flaw by any means.

Prop 7 does not, as many opponents claim, exclude smaller renewable energy projects. It makes no change to the eligibility rules. It does create a fast track permitting process for larger projects, and this language has been mis-read to exclude smaller projects from eligibility more generally. But this is not the case.

Is Prop 7 perfect? No. But it is quite good, and it does follow most of the recommendations of the 2006 Energy Commission Integrated Energy Policy Report. It's also been endorsed by three Nobel Prize winners.

Posted by: Tam Hunt at November 2, 2008 07:46 PM

NRDC and EDF NOT TO BE TRUSTED: I don't qualify myself to judge the complexities of Prop 7 in relation to California energy law. However in the past I wrote a critical report challenging NRDC's neutrality regarding a highly controversial development of the Ballona Wetlands of Los Angeles -- for example, activists dressed as frogs and protested fundraisers as Steven Spielberg's home -- while NRDC's board members and donors were intertwined with the developer interests, including Hollywood's top moguls Spielberg, Geffen, and Katzenberg. For example, Geffen was a regular generous donor. Also, considering how valuable as an asset are celebrity actors and musicians to NRDC, it makes sense that it would not want to antagonize Hollywood's top directors and producers. ( See the report at http://www.nonprofitwatch.org/nrdc/ ) But where else may NRDC drop the ball or soft-pedal policy out of attention to needs of special interests to which it has ties? Well, for one it supported NAFTA which benefited business interests, including clothing company The Gap, of which a son of the founders and top executive sits on NRDC's board and supports the group financially.

Regarding Prop 7, an anonymous blogger by the handle of SolarCaliGirl slams the ethics and judgment of NRDC and some other major enviros who've been criticizing Prop 7. www.confusedinsolarcalifornia.blogspot.com
I suggest people look at the site for a different perspective than put forth in the mainstream coverage of enviro groups opposing 7. SolarCaliGirl challenges these groups on both their policy analysis of Prop 7 as well as integrity and exposes various financial and personal ties to the electric utilities.

SolarCaliGirl’s blog points out that that NRDC played a leadership role in designing and defending California's electricity restructuring. We saw how well that worked out. Considering that NRDC utterly botched deregulation, setting California up to be manipulated and plundered by the energy companies, such as Enron for which NRDC had gone to bat and dubbed “progressive”, a more self-reflective environmental community would not be assigning trust to NRDC. That CEERT, CLCV, UCS were involved or silent as California was swindled of money, renewables, and even its governor by the deregulation scheme does not inspire my trust in these groups.

Others including respected journalists have made similar criticism regarding NRDC. This information is available but ignored by the mainstream press and most of the blogosphere.

NRDC may have many good-intentioned people on staff, but organizationally I believe NRDC to be too subservient to corporate interests. NRDC certainly pursues various good work, but often constrained if one ponders the vast range of possibilities and the group's historical record, and thus does not justify the areas where NRDC's agenda seems questionable to me from an environmental perspective. NRDC can't even change light bulbs - greenwashing a ten year phase out by General Electric of the traditional climate-damaging incandescent bulbs as opposed to calling for an immediate halt to further production.

With the above in mind as well as considering NRDC's role in greenwashing free trade (supported NAFTA), deregulation, carbon trading, Enron, coal, nuclear power, industrial biofuels and more, I am hesitant to defer to NRDC on major environmental policy, including Prop 7.

Almost forgot: in the past I wrote an extensive and well referenced report critical of the Environmental Defense Fund, another group opposing Prop 7. The report noted EDF's ties to utility interests while the group pursued supportive policies, such as attempting to arrange green brownie points for Enron in its effort to take over a dam from Native Americans and to broker greenhouse credits for an electric utility on account of its nuclear generating capacity. The report highlighted a few board members, such as the man described as a classical pianist by EDF, ignoring that he and his relatives were directly involved benefiting from the family's highly diversified coal company of which he was a top shareholder; the report suggested various policies supported by EDF to the benefit of the company, but not clearly with the environment as the top priority. Another director had defended International Paper for polluting a major lake; this polluter's lawyer was at a law firm whose clients included Exxon. Later I showed the highly troubling connection of EDF to Enron's Ken Lay through a long time top donor and vice-chair of EDF's board of directors who in turn had created a group of which Ken Lay was a founding board member, serving for over six years until at least a year after Enron's collapse; in all likelihood Lay as a corporate chieftan generously donated to the group. Like NRDC, EDF also defended deregulation in California.

bernardo (at) NonprofitWatch dot org

Posted by: bernardo issel at November 3, 2008 12:19 AM

Tam: Thank you for your comment. I have a healthy respect for expert opinion and the many different environmental organizations that have decided to oppose Prop 7, especially since I am not an expert in the rather technical, but important, issues raised. I have discussed this proposition not only with environmental groups and members, but with some other experts whose judgements I trust.

The article was not meant to be an analysis of both Prop 7 and 10, but to discuss the interesting pattern of voter opinion from the Field Poll.

For some reason, your organization was not listed as a supporter of Prop 7--no organizations were listed on the yes on 7 website.

Sorry, but when an out of state billionaire qualifies an initiative with paid signature gatherers, in this case a statute that could have been adopted by the legislature, and fails to get the support of environmental organizations that are longstanding and respected, that is significant to me. Even you admit it is not perfect and I have heard of many drafting errors.

My hope is that a new legislature can enact some of the good features of Prop 7 after they have been vetted and gone through the committee process. Prop 7, if it passes, can only be amended with a two-thirds vote of both houses of the legislature. I believe in electing a legislature to make decisions on matters such as this that they can enact by statute unless there is a real uprising of California citizens and a good reason to do so and a well written initiative.

Posted by: Frank D. Russo at November 3, 2008 05:37 AM

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