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An Economic Backdrop for Fiscal Reform in California
• California will need a multiyear strategy for responding
• Policymakers will need to focus on the priorities
• California will need to rethink the role of the state and its local partners

By Leon E. Panetta and
Thomas V. McKernan
Co-Chairs
California Forward
As the economic crisis worsens, the profound and lasting impacts on schools, health care, and public safety programs is becoming clear – as is the imperative for comprehensive changes to how we finance and govern essential services.
California is not alone in this maelstrom. But the public response has been slow, and the economic forces have exposed again the structural failings of our fiscal and budget systems.
The latest fiscal warnings are contained in a report prepared for California Forward by Beacon Economics. The Beacon economists, who have a firm grasp on the real estate markets and corporate California, conclude that the financial and housing meltdowns will substantially erode property tax revenues, further aggravating the fiscal problems faced by state and local governments.
Beacon expects property taxes to decline by nearly 11 percent or $5 billion over the next three years, with the largest declines coming in 2009-10. Property tax revenue is not expected to recover to the 2007-08 levels until 2013. Not since the Great Depression has California experienced declining property tax revenue from one year to the next.
These declines will put substantial fiscal pressure on local governments in addition to the reductions in state funding as a result of slumping revenues into the state General Fund. Local governments use the property tax to provide basic services, such as police and fire protection, and to match state revenues that support efforts to help struggling families and abused children, and to provide health care to the poor and the elderly.
Beacon’s forecast for personal income and sales taxes – the two largest sources of income to the state General Fund – are as gloomy as those from the Department of Finance and the Legislative Analyst. Beacon, however, forecasts weaker corporate profits over the next two years, and as a result, corporate tax revenues $2.9 billion lower than those estimated by state analysts.
As we share this information with you, California Forward is making progress on its efforts to promote public understanding and support for fiscal and governance reforms. The Beacon report along with those by the state’s fiscal analysts make it clear that the short-term policy responses to the crisis must be integrated into long-term structural reforms. Among them:
1. California will need a multiyear strategy for responding. This plan should enable public managers to find ways to reduce costs as much as possible without reducing services. Similarly, California will need to develop an ongoing process for multiyear budgeting – one that focuses policymakers and the public on the long-term implications of revenue and spending decisions.
2. Policymakers will need to focus on the priorities. As state and local leaders consider raising taxes and cutting programs, officials need to establish priorities, ask the hard questions about the best way for programs to achieve those objectives and be clear with the public about those choices. Similarly, California should put in place a budget process that is guided by results and focuses policymakers on how to best use available resources to meet those priorities.
3. As the fiscal crisis deepens, California will need to rethink the role of the state and its local partners. Scores of reports and recommendations have advocated for realigning state and local authority – over resources and programs – as a way to reduce costs, improve results and increase public accountability. Increasingly these reports have focused on ways to encourage local agencies to work together regionally to prepare their workforces and grow their economies, while helping vulnerable families and ensuring public safety.
In the coming days California Forward will put forth a proposal for a new state budget process with the potential to help legislators make difficult choices in ways that over time can improve the value of public expenditures and begin to restore public trust. This proposal is predicated on the principles for reform published earlier this year, refined by conversations with thousands of insightful state, regional and community leaders. We look forward to discussing and refining this proposal – with confidence that a bipartisan agreement on budget reforms can be the catalyst for bipartisan agreement on the difficult choices required to respond to the immediate budget dilemma.
In addition, we are exploring how we can best contribute to an informed and thoughtful discussion with Californians about the choices for restructuring the revenue system to provide the necessary resources, create stability and improve accountability. We look forward to hearing your thoughts on this issue as that project unfolds.
This is the time for all leaders to stand tall. California will almost certainly recover. But the speed of that recovery – the ultimate impact on schoolchildren and university students, and their futures – will depend overwhelmingly on the choices made. Our position in the global economy, the potential of all Californians to prosper, will be determined in part by how the budget is “balanced,” but more significantly by whether we adapt our systems of governance to deal with this and future challenges.
We are committed to developing solutions that match those challenges.
Comments
Well, you blue dogs have gotten your redistricting "reform" (and say goodbye to minority leadership in the Capitol, and, for that matter, any more African-American seats--but wasn't that always the agenda anyway?) but how about reforming the true anti-democratic rule--the 2/3rd's vote. We know how 1/3 of California will vote--they will take this state and flush it down the toliet bowl. It'd be nice if we had majority rule--its called democracy.
Posted by: publius at November 21, 2008 12:32 PM
Ah publius..."It'd be nice if we had majority rule--its called democracy."
So the majority of voters who passed Propositions 187, then 22 and 8 on the same issue should "rule", Right?
Posted by: Jay Gould at November 21, 2008 01:00 PM
Reactionary Gould conflates civil rights, which require a supermajority to overturn, with taxaction policy, which has never, in English common law or American law (until the 20th century), required a supermajority. It should be noted that property rights are very well protected with supermajorities, just like civil rights (the sovereign cannot take property away without due process of law, just as it cannot imprison a citizen without due process of law). The propositions Gould refers to all violate fundamental civil rights--it is worth noting that the very right-ward leaning US Supreme Court threw out a Colorado initiative that had received voter approval on civil rights grounds.
Posted by: publius at November 21, 2008 02:31 PM
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