2010 California Races Begin Before Votes Counted From 2008—Kamala Harris Announces for Attorney General—Field Poll Shows Feinstein Has Most Favorable Rating for Governor—Republicans Unknown

San Francisco District Attorney Kamala Harris, a real rising star in the Democratic Party, has sent an email to her list announcing the first steps in a run for California Attorney General—with a couple of asterisks that should be appended. According to reports, she will not run if the current AG, Jerry Brown decides to run for re-election (and not run for what would be a third term for Governor—the office he held from 1975 through 1983). More about Brown under the Field Poll analysis below. The other caveat as to a Harris run for AG is that she has national prominence and may be asked to play a major role in the Obama Administration.

Harris said in her message to supporters yesterday:

“I'm very excited to share with you that on Wednesday I am taking the first steps to run for Attorney General of California in 2010.

“You should know that I did not make this decision lightly. Many of you have been urging me to run for some time and it was only after much personal deliberation and consultation with my family that I arrived at this decision. You should also know that I will not run against the Democratic incumbent should he seek reelection.

“I love being San Francisco District Attorney and I am proud of the many achievements that we, working together, have made at the DA's Office. In partnership with the Assistant District Attorneys and other Hall of Justice staff, we have increased conviction rates for serious and violent offenses; expanded services to victims of crime and their families; created new prosecution divisions focused on child assault; public integrity and environmental crimes; and launched innovative initiatives to prevent re-offending. I've never worked with a more dedicated group of public servants in my life.

“Now, I want to take that same energy, innovation and change to the state level. I've spent my entire professional life in the trenches as a courtroom prosecutor. And I can tell you from the frontlines, we need tough new ideas for strengthening our criminal justice system in California. As Attorney General, I will fight for all Californians – from distressed homeowners to families whose neighborhoods are under siege. In the coming months, I will detail new ideas on how we can fight street gangs, go after subprime lenders and others responsible for the financial crisis, and fundamentally reform our prison system.

“Your support and friendship have meant the world to me. I thank you for all you have done and now I ask for your support moving into this next chapter. Together, we can bring a new generation of leadership to California's criminal justice system.”

New Field Poll Data Shows Feinstein With Strong Positive Ratings from California Democrats

Newly released data from a California Field Poll taken before last week’s election on candidates running for governor—reportedly or for real—are making a splash. Not to cast any cold water on the results, I would caution that it is early, the numbers for Democratic contenders to watch are the opinions of Democrats and to some degree the decline to state voters, and the Republican candidates are virtual unknowns to those in their own party as well as Californians. Also the Field sample is small—527 voters with a margin of error when looking at the entire sample of 4.5%. The subset of Democrats polled is 232—meaning that the margin of error for this smaller sample is even greater. And these numbers are for registered voters and not likely voters.

You can look at the data from Field in a 4 page survey and also the crosstabs in the Sacramento Bee and the most telling finding is that California U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein is far and away the best known of these candidates, has the most Democratic and non-partisan/others favorables (remember decline-to-state votes can participate in the Democratic primary for governor), and amongst registered Democrats has the lowest or is statistically tied for the lowest unfavorable ratings.

Feinstein has a favorable rating from Democrats of 70% to 16% with 14% having no opinion. She also has a favorable 53% to 32% from non-partisan/others with 15% not expressing an opinion.

Next in the order of Democratic registered voters favorables is Attorney General Jerry Brown at 46% favorable to 21% with Democrats, followed by Gavin Newsom at 38% to 23%, Antonio Villaraigosa at 36% favorable to 21%, and John Garamendi at 30% to 19%.

Jack O’Connell, the State Superintendent of Public Instruction is a virtual unknown, with Democratic voter at 14% favorable, 11% unfavorable and a whopping 75% with no opnion.

So, Feinstein has a 20 percent or higher advantage in favorables with non-partisan/other voters. One could do a net positive score on all Democratic candidates here—but many of these voters will not participate in the Democratic primary in 2010, include those registered with third parties who cannot participate, and are a small proportion of the vote for nominating Democrats. The key figure here is the ones with registered Democrats.

If Feinstein decides not to run, Brown has the advantage, not only in name recognition and favorable from Democrats, but also in money he raised and didn’t spent in his blowout win for Attorney General in 2006.

As for Republican candidates for governor, they all are unknowns to their party, with 63% to 73% of GOP registrants not having any opinion of them and similar figures for registered voters of all parties and independents as well. The most striking part of these numbers from Field is that despite spending millions on voter registration drives, Prop 11, and favorite causes of the Republican Party, and being the only statewide Republican officeholder other than Governor Schwarzenegger himself, 73% of Republicans have no opinion of Steve Poizner, the Insurance Commissioner—the highest of the three candidates. 12% have a favorable opinion and 15% an unfavorable one. Meg Whitman, a former eBay CEO, and Tom Campbell, a former Member of Congress and Director of the State Department of Finance, are also relative unknowns.