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Three Overlapping Seats Winnable in Central California Blue Wave: Congress, State Senate, and Assembly
By Linda Sutton
In June I sent out an assessment that we could be in a position to be winning seats previously thought unwinnable. Eric Bauman had written a widely read piece in the LA Times predicting a "Blue Wave."
Now we're there. In the recent polling by Rasmussen, California is a solid +16% for Obama.
What can this mean in the 24th Congressional District (Thousand Oaks to Lompoc)? Marta Jorgensen is our candidate running against Elton Gallegly--a total Bush supporter and someone most Democrats want to see retired from office.
The last registration report from our Secretary of State shows only a 7.12% difference between Democrats and Republicans (in the Republican's favor). BUT, there is a whopping 18.14% of Decline to State/Peace&Freedom/Green voters. And there are Republicans (yes, even in this stronghold) who are sick of what their party has done to the country.
This seat is winnable! Obama's lead is now at 56%--meaning that he is WINNING the independents. Statewide Democrats are at 43.9% registration as of 9/5/08. So, he is pulling at least 11.6% from the independents and other parties. If only HALF of the independents/others within this CD break to the Democratic side, we could snatch this seat away from Elton Gallegly.
At this time, one overlapping race has taken much of the available local campaign funds--that of Hannah Beth Jackson for the State Senate's19th District. She is a wonderful candidate who has been viewed as the strongest due to her previous experience in the state legislature. Her differential to make up is less than 2%. Another overlapping district is the 37th AD. Here, Ferial Masry is on her third run and she's done an incredible amount of groundwork walking this district and meeting with independents and Republicans as well as registered Democrats. Registration differential for her is 7.01%. Also, very winnable.
Wouldn't it be wonderful if all three were given the resources needed to win!
I would urge all Democrats to focus some of their volunteer time on these important overlapping races. They all need money for the final push. Marta Jorgensen has scheduled fundraisers (go to http://www.jorgensenforcongress.com/) and you can donate any amount directly through the site also.
I'm sure there are many other candidates in the so-called "red zones" who are in a similar situation.
Linda Sutton is a writer, photographer, and educator based in Los Angeles. She was the press coordinator for Gov. Jimmy Carter in '76 and did political media locally thereafter. Recently, she produced the public access television show "We Say/They Say" with host Marcy Winograd and the "Gore Vidal on Education" Truth Now radio interview. She writes on various progressive blogs and comments way too often. Political photos are on the progressivecaucuscdp.org website; others at lindasuttonphoto.com. She was the co-producer of the 40th AD candidate forums and has produced the "HAiR" and "Body of War" fundraisers for Progressive Democrats of America. She is an elected delegate in CA's 41st AD, is on the Human Rights Committee of UTLA's House of Reps, and is a member of several Democratic clubs.
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