Elimination of Same Sex Marriage—Prop 8--Still Opposed by Majority of California Voters--Prop 4 on Parental Notification Close--Prop 11 on Redistricting Ahead But With Less Than a Majority

There is another concern in that 69% of those who are voting yes on 8 say the issue is “very important” top them whereas the figure for those voting no is at 49% on this measurement. Overall, 57% of likely voters say this issue is very important to them and another 26% of California voters say it is “somewhat important,” combining to 83% of those likely to vote. Only 10% of voters say it is “not too important” and another 5% say it is “not at all important.”

With such high importance attached to Prop 8 and awareness of the voters to it as evidenced by the low undecided numbers, will the overall picture on Prop 8 change further? It seems to me that turnout will be key as well as getting voters who are turning out to vote for President to go down the ballot and vote on this measure. That will probably effect many of the 11 other statewide ballot measures and countless downticket races for office.

Democrats, by 67% to 29% oppose Prop 8 and are joined by independents 585 to 39% in opposition. Republicans support Prop 8 by a 70% to 26% margin. This represents a 4% drop in Democratic opposition from last month when it was at 71%, an increase in Republican support from 62% then, and a firming up of the independent vote opposition which is now 5 points higher than the 53% opposition then.

The PPIC findings show no statistical difference between white and Latino voters, with both groups voting no by the same 8 to 10 point margin.

The Field Poll should be out on this and other items on the California ballot next week and their findings will give greater clarity to the likely outcome here.

Prop 4—Waiting Period and Parental Notification Before Termination of Minor’s Pregnancy

The PPIC shows this as very close and within the margin of error of the poll with 46% in favor, 44% opposed, and 10% undecided. There is a definite shift reflected here as the poll from last month had it ahead by 7 points with a similar 48% of likely voters saying they would vote yes and 41% saying they would vote no. It is more in line with PPIC’s August survey where the voters were more evenly divided at 47% yes and 44% no.

There is a huge partisan divide here with Democrats opposed 54% to 35% along with independents 51% to 43% with Republicans in support 61% to 28%.

Latinos are in support 50% to 42% and white voters divided at 44% yes and 45% no.

And like Prop 8, those intending to vote yes say it is important to them, although by a lower margin of 86% to 79%.

This issue has been on the California ballot and rejected by the voters twice before by margins of 47% yes and 53% no in 2005 and 46% yes and 54% no in 2006. In those past elections, it was favored by larger margins at the beginning of the campaign and lost strength closer to election day. This presages what may be a close election this time, as voters who have not decided how to vote generally vote against ballot propositions if there is a campaign against the measure that creates doubts about it.

Prop 11—Redistricting

The PPIC shows Prop 11, an initiative constitutional amendment to take the authority to draw legislative districts away from elected officials and give it to a commission of registered voters, ahead by 41% to 34% with a whopping 25% of likely voters undecided. There hasn’t been much change from the results of the last survey of a month ago when it was 38% yes and 33% no with 29% undecided.

The partisan divide remains here, in many ways as it was in the last survey. Democrats are split 38% to 37% statistically insignificantly in support and were previously in support by 36 to 33%. Republicans report identical numbers as before with 45% in support and 30% in opposition. Independent support has grown to 39% (from 29%) in support and 33% (down from 43%) in opposition.

There is a really strange gender gap here—with men in support 47% to 31% while women break 36% in opposition and 35% in support—basically split. And while white voters are in support by 43% to 31%--much like the overall likely voters numbers, Latinos are opposed 395 to 44%.

The PPIC asked this question:

“If voting districts were redrawn by an independent commission of citizens, do you think California would generally have state legislators who more effectively represent their districts than legislators do today, or not?”

By a 52% to 28% margin, with 20% saying they didn’t know, likely voters agreed with this.

The prior PPIC survey showed that, as in past elections, California voters want change in the redistricting process. But the devil is often in the details of who—if it is not the “politicians” elected to office—should be doing the redistricting. This issue has been on the ballot a number of times in the past and has been defeated largely on that question as old as Plato’s who guards the guardians. In 2005, a similar proposition, which would have given redistricting authority to a panel of retired judges, was rejected (40% yes, 60% no).

If reports are true that there will not be much of a no campaign on this and that funds have dried up, with the aggressive fundraising being done by Schwarzenegger and company—including his latest forays out of state—this could be the exception to the rule that ballot propositions that do not have a majority (i.e. 50% plus) of support at this stage fail when all the votes are counted. The undecided vote is spread more or less evenly—with the highest number at 28% amongst independent voters. I would expect the final vote to be a bit more partisan than it is now. I wouldn’t be counting my chickens (not a reference to Prop 2) on this one before the election is over.

The sample in this poll is large and the margin of error is low. PPIC interviewed 2,004 California adults which included 1564 registered voters and 1,186 likely voters. The margin of error for likely voters is 3%. Because the PPIC interviewed those with landline numbers, if anything it may be underreporting the Democratic trends here. A significant number of California voters have only cell phones and they tend to skew towards the younger voters. Based on the numbers of registered voters and likely voters in the PPIC’s samples here, it appears that these results are predicated on about a 75.8% turnout. Elections are won or lost depending on who shows up at the polls (including casting a vote by mail ballot).

The PPIC is a respected private, nonprofit organization dedicated to informing and improving public policy in California through independent, objective, nonpartisan research on major economic, social, and political issues. It was established in 1994 with an endowment from William R. Hewlett and does not take or support positions on any ballot measure or on any local, state, or federal legislation, nor does it endorse, support, or oppose any political parties or candidates for public office. Together with the California Field Poll it is considered to provide the best publicly available polling data in the state.

You can read the entire 42 page poll which includes the presidential race with implications for other races and measurements of Californians’ opinions online.