Field Poll Shows California Prop 4--Parental Notification and Waiting Period for Abortion by Minors--is Leading and That Turnout May Decide Its Fate

As we noted in our analysis of the PPIC poll yesterday:

“This issue has been on the California ballot and rejected by the voters twice before by margins of 47% yes and 53% no in 2005 and 46% yes and 54% no in 2006. In those past elections, it was favored by larger margins at the beginning of the campaign and lost strength closer to election day. This presages what may be a close election this time, as voters who have not decided how to vote generally vote against ballot propositions if there is a campaign against the measure that creates doubts about it.”

The November 2006 Field Poll, taken on the cusp of that election, showed Prop 85 winning 46% to 43%. The Field Poll taken in November of 2005, right before that election, showed Proposition 73 trailing for the first time. In three prior surveys, Field reported that voters were closely divided in their preferences, with yes side support on 73 ranging narrowly between 45% to 48%, while opposition was likewise narrowly ranging between 43% and 45%.

The numbers released this week by Field and PPIC are a bit higher on the yes side on Prop 4 and a bit lower on the no side. The results this year probably will be closer—one way or the other. The no side won by 6 points and 8 points respectively in the last two elections, and in at least one of them, it was due to voter turnout on election day. In the special election of 2005, the electorate broke according to Field’s last poll before the election with those casting absentee ballots statistically tied at 46% in favor and 48% opposed, but those who voted in their precincts voted 39% in favor and 50% opposed.

Here there is a gulf of difference between parties and on the ideological spectrum. Democrats are opposed 50% to 39% and Republicans are in support by an even wider 69% to 24%. Non-partisan/others are opposed 52% to 35%. Prop 4 has overwhelming support from strongly and moderately conservative voters—making up 31% of the expected electorate. It has strong opposition from moderately liberal and strongly liberal voters, expected to comprise 29% of the electorate. The 40% of the expected electorate who describe themselves as “middle-of-the-road” are split, 45% in favor and 43% opposed, within the margin of error of the poll.

There is a large gender gap here with men favoring the initiative 54% to 38% and women split at 44% in favor and 43% opposed. There is a religious divide here with Protestants and Catholics and Evangelicals in support and other religious beliefs opposed.

And there is a correlation with age. Young voters—those under age 39 are split, while older voters are in support of Prop 4.

Here is how the tug of war on Prop 4 may play out. It depends on turnout on election day and how the undecideds break.

If those who vote include larger than expected numbers of Democrats or those belonging to neither party—especially younger voters—Prop 4 will probably fail. Field’s modeling is that the electorate will be 44% Democratic, 36% Republican, and 20% non-partisan/others. In what I believe will be a very high turnout of voters, including newly registered voters, the final numbers could be closer to the actual registration figures which give Democrats a 12% edge over Republicans and non-partisans, who traditionally vote in much lower proportions than they are registered, could also vote in a higher percentage.

The trend in most ballot elections, if the opposition is well financed to make its arguments, is that voters in doubt tend to vote no. What is very telling in Field’s numbers is that the highest percentage of undecided voters are in the middle of the road and moderately liberal segments. Basically, conservatives have made up their minds: only 8% of strongly conservative and 3% of moderately conservative voters are undecided. While only 9% of strongly liberal voters are undecided, the highest group of undecided voters includes 20% of moderately liberal voters and 12% of middle-of-the-road voters. Moderate liberals are breaking three to one (60% to 20%) against Prop 4—and if those who are undecided break similarly, it will provide votes to the no side.

There’s also one final variable. Who will get down that far in the ballot and vote on ballot propositions.

Field’s poll was taken of 830 likely voters and has a margin of error of 3.5%. The poll and its crosstabs do not reflect the opinions of registered voters including those who are not the predicted likely voters. Those results would have been interesting in what may be a close election contest.