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Cavala: Perfect ‘Storm’ Looms for the G.O.P. in California

towashington 089.gif By Bill Cavala
A veteran of over 30 years in Sacramento

Journalists covering Presidential campaigns have to file stories on a regular – often a daily basis – whether or not the campaigns generate “news”. As candidates don’t change their positions on issues day-to-day, reporters are forced to compete for such “new” scraps of information they can glean: crowd size, insider gossip, reaction to polls, ‘man on the street’ and so on. It’s the nature of the business, but sometimes the coverage of the trees dims the picture of the forest.

Those of us in the business of electing people professionally are humbly aware of how little “political campaigns” have to do with election outcomes. Campaigns can affect media coverage of elections, but media coverage itself takes a back seat to macro forces in determining election outcomes.

No where was his true homily expressed better than in James Carville’s slogan for Clinton’s run in 1992: “It’s the economy, stupid”!

This year it’s both the economy, war, and the increasingly strong connection voters are making between gasoline prices and our involvement with radical Islam. These are the elements of George W. Bush’s decline in public support – into the 20’s in California. And these are the problems facing the GOP in the upcoming election.

Rhetoric about “mavericks”, arguments about “service” and the distracting candidacy of Governor Palin may capture the short-term institutional interest of the media, but they are unlikely to change the context of choice for the voters.

But here’s a test to prove this hypotheses.

Registration gains and losses between the Democrats and Republicans have been relatively equal over the years. Both gain supporters during years of interest when Presidential candidates are on the ballot. Both lose some of that support subsequently as turnout declines for off year elections.

But in 1992 we saw something different. The down economy of that period and the Clinton/Bush contest for the presidency added 300,000 new Republican registrants to the rolls - - but also 740,000 additional Democrats (October ’92 numbers). That net gain of 440,000 Democrats was the largest in decades. As a direct consequence, Democrats gained legislative seats in the wake of a court-drawn redistricting plan that all analysts predicted would benefit Republicans (which it did, two years later, in 1994).

And this year? We won’t know until the October numbers are out in six weeks. But the registration change from October, 2006 to May of this year are remarkable. Democrats have already gained 674,000 new registrants. Republicans have – for the first time since the Watergate period. – lost registered adherents. There are 192,000 fewer Republicans today than two years ago. That net difference of 866,000 – the Democratic gain over 2006 – dwarfs the previous modern record of 16 years ago by over 125,000. With the most recent 5 months of additional registration yet to be accounted for.

Declining registration can, within limits, be offset by increasing turnout. The Republican Party has excelled in recent years in using technology to do just that. But the Democratic Party has learned too. News reports that focus on close results in national surveys (while ignoring state by state polls) will convince voters that their “vote counts”.
The salience of the election issues (war, the economy) is high. That combination could produce a turnout of 80%, swamping many more Republican boats than are expected.

Media “spin” notwithstanding, the potential for a perfect storm inundating the GOP is a distinct possibility.

Bill Cavala was Deputy Director of the Assembly Speaker’s Office of Member Services where he worked for over 30 years. He attended undergraduate and graduate school in the 1960’s and received a doctorate in political science at UC Berkeley. He taught political science at UC Berkeley during the 1970's while he worked part-time for the State Assembly.

Cavala left teaching at UC Berkeley for Assembly Speaker Willie Brown in 1981 until his tenure as Speaker ended in 1995, and he has worked for his five successors as Speaker. He now manages election campaigns for Democratic candidates.

Posted on September 07, 2008

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