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Randy’s War: It Appears That the Nowick Addendum to the Roosevelt Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine Is Working

By Irwin Nowick

Because the situation in Georgia is beginning to stabilize, I believe its now time for a wrap up as to where we are.

For starters, the US military via Navy destroyers and heavily armed Coast Guard Cutters are directly providing humanitarian relief. This interjection of a direct US military presence is consistent with what I suggested in prior articles. This has acted as a tripwire for further Russian adventurism.

In addition, now that we are 3 weeks away from the start of this hubbub, it is now clear that the US and other G-8 Members now agree that Georgia in effect started this but that whatever who started what, Georgian sovereignty as a country has to be preserved.

In terms of where we go from here, there are four facts that have to be kept in mind.

One, Russia is still a basket case. Its military is still so so – its performance in Georgia was not exactly overwhelming - and it is still losing population as a country and it has a population with substantial health issues.

Two, China – because it is a front line state with Russia is very important – has indicated that it is opposed to unilateral border changing. Given the Chinese concerns over stability that is not surprising. Indeed, a number of pro-Russian anti Georgian states which are resource rich, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan reaffirmed their support for the sovereignty of the countries involved so they are isolated diplomatically.

Three, this conflict shows why new and domestic energy sources for all countries is in the best interest of all countries.

And, last but not least, the use of soft power by making Russia suffer economically long term for this over reactive behavior is probably the most likely strategy to succeed. I say that because there is a substantial issue over whether Russia should be ejected from world economic organizations or not. The Russia of today is not the Russia of the Cold War and its survival depends on its ability to sustain its self economically.

What has to happen is that Russia is punished in such a manner that it learns its lessons but after being “put in the back pew” to quote a Russell Long description of how Lyndon Johnson operated with recalcitrant Senators – though I would refer to it as “Barbara Greenwald Tough Mommy Rules” (in honor of my sister and similarly situated women), a chastened and punished Russia needs to rejoin the world community under circumstances where it is constructive not destructive.

This Nowick view now appears to be US policy. Daniel Fried, assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs was quoted in the Washington Post who was quoted as saying "Russia is going to have to come to terms with the reality it can either integrate with the world or it can be a self-isolated bully. But it can't be both. And that's a choice Russia has to have," Fried said.

Similarly, in a speech in Kiev, Ukraine, British Foreign Secretary David Miliband said: "Today Russia is more isolated, less trusted and less respected than two weeks ago. It has made military gains in the short term. But over time, it will feel economic and political losses."

And here is the key:

“Miliband noted that Russia's foreign exchange reserves have fallen by $16 billion and risk premiums for investing in Russia have soared since the crisis began. By contrast, when the Soviet Union attacked Czechoslovakia in 1968, ‘no one asked what impact its actions had on the Russian stock market. There was no Russian stock market."

Since the mid 1980's Irwin Nowick has worked for the California State Assembly and State Senate on a plethora of policy issues, m ost notably firearms legislation. He has been described as "The Assembly's resident genius" by a former Speaker of the Assembly and is seen frequently in the Capitol hallways and offices assisting legislators in drafting and amending pending legislation.

Posted on August 29, 2008

Comments

Mr. Nowick,

You said here:

"For starters, the US military via Navy destroyers and heavily armed Coast Guard Cutters are directly providing humanitarian relief. This interjection of a direct US military presence is consistent with what I suggested in prior articles."

Funny, your referenced article tried to tie this situation with some "neo-con" failure(s).

Please consider:

"Neo-con" President ("the buck stops here") George W. Bush is the one who placed US warships in the Black Sea to support Georgia. I'm pretty sure it wasn't as per your "suggestion". Or perhaps like great minds do think alike? I'll give you that.

Plus, "Neo-con" Secretary of State Rice has been beating up the Russians over this via her diplomatic efforts simultaneously.

The former Red Army's "failure" in Georgia wasn't by a lack of effort, but one restrained politically by world-wide opinion and posturing, just like Bush and Rice are doing as described above.

My point: You are pretty close to the mark in your assessments on this situation. But unfortunately you inject a little too much political partisanship where it doesn't really belong nor is even a player in the actual situation here. If you stay on the issue and keep internal US politics out of the discusion of a world-wide issue, and perhaps give credit to where it is due (Bush/Rice) I think your excellent commentary would resonate better, like this effort here did.

Please continue to consider any SIGNIFICANT US Naval presence in the Black Sea is limited by the Montreax Convention banning MAJOR warships (carriers for example) from transiting the Turkish straits.

Our destroyers and "heavily armed Coast Guard Cutters" (how are they "heavily armed" anyway?) are not major warships. You bet, they would ONLY be a trip-wire if the Russian's with overwhelming local military power decides to "go for it".

God bless our US Navy and Coast Guard!

Posted by: Jay Gould at August 30, 2008 09:05 AM

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