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Schrag: A Look Behind the California High School Dropout Numbers

By Peter Schrag

Coming just a week after the state Board of Education toughened math requirements for eighth- graders, California's new dropout statistics are even more sobering than they would be otherwise.

As usual, the numbers, which are based on new data systems and which calculate graduation rates as lower and dropout rates as higher than in the past, get the predictable schools-are-failing responses, sometimes from the same people who demand higher standards.

But in this murky statistical picture, the new data may be almost as misleading as the old. Dropout numbers, long underreported, may be still worse, but it's just as likely that they're better. In education, unfortunately, bad news is much more likely to get respectful attention than good news, which is too often ignored.

The numbers, released last week by the state Department of Education, put California's high school graduation rate in 2006-07, the latest year for which numbers are available, at 67 percent and the cumulative grades nine to 12 dropout rate at 24 percent, the difference being the students who transferred, got an equivalent diploma, left the country, died, etc.

Critics like Alan Bonsteel of the pro-voucher California Parents for Educational Choice say the new system still uses "phony data" from school districts that undercount dropouts. Among other things, he says, the state ignores the middle school dropout rate and provides districts a long and sometimes dubious list of reasons – "being on an extended family vacation" is one Bonsteel cites – to discount the dropout numbers.

But in basing its calculations on enrollment in the ninth grade, which has a huge "bulge" of students who have been held back as not ready for high school work, the state is probably overcounting dropouts. Some of that bulge may be transfers from private schools, but it's hardly enough to account for most of it.

If the department's data for the graduation rate in 2006-07 were calculated on the basis of eighth-grade enrollment four years before, rather on the bulging ninth- grade enrollment three years before, it would be 75 percent – hardly great but not as dismal as the 67 percent reported.

In all those calculations, almost needless to say, African American and Latino students lag far below the state average. For African Americans, the state estimates a dropout rate of 41 percent between ninth and 12th grade. For Latinos, it's 30 percent.

(For whites, on the other hand, it's15 percent; for Asians, 10 percent).

What deserves almost as much attention as the ethnic gaps and hasn't gotten it are the gender differences – a 46 percent four-year dropout rate for African American males vs. a 36 percent rate for females, with similar differences for most other groups, which may be almost as significant as the numbers for ethnicity.

Obviously, the numbers reflect school problems, and especially the inadequate resources in schools serving the state's poorest children. It's not simply that they don't get commensurate schooling – that their teachers are less qualified or that their school facilities are run down. Given the handicaps they bring to school, they need richer resources, smaller classes, more counseling, more enrichment, more of almost everything.

But the gender differences and other data are also reminders of the influence of family, peers and other cultural factors, health care, housing and countless other factors largely beyond the control of schools.

In a report issued last month by the Public Policy Institute of California, researchers concluded that children at risk of failure on the California High School Exit Exam can be identified as early as fourth grade.

Given everything that's known, that's hardly surprising. It reinforces the conviction that early intervention is more effective than later remediation. But it also implies that academic problems aren't just created in the schools and that calls from people like Barack Obama on black parents (fathers especially) to be there for their children – to work with them, read to them and encourage them to engage in responsible behavior – aren't out of line, no matter how easy it is to demagogue them as racist.

None of that exempts schools and teachers from their responsibility for quality. Nor does it exempt California's leaders from the responsibility to provide resources commensurate with their expectations – expectations that, as with the decision mandating beginning algebra for all eighth-graders, are too casually imposed by people, including the governor, eager to look serious and tough at other people's expense.

The state says the new dropout numbers are higher not because dropping out has increased but only because of the new way of calculating them. But Russell Rumberger, who studies dropout issues at the School of Education at UC Santa Barbara, says a close examination of the new data suggests that, in fact, the dropout rate is rising.

What's almost certain is that every increase in demands on schools and students not matched with the necessary resources to meet them is likely to drive up failure rates and increase dropouts still further. That, too, is a no-brainer.

Peter Schrag is the former editorial page editor of the Sacramento Bee. This article is published with his permission.

Posted on July 22, 2008

Comments

"Obviously, the numbers reflect school problems, and especially the inadequate resources in schools serving the state's poorest children."

I'd say there are plenty of resources being pumped into public education. We could up funding another 10-30% and still not see substantial improvement in grades (for high school). Much of it is plainly cultural.

The dropout rate is really more of a reflection of finally actually holding students accountable through the exit exam, and from a renewed absence of grade inflation.

We already hold schools and teachers accountable for their end of the equation. When will we address parental negligence? Or student lack of motivation? Would seem easy to me to pull a parents' tax credit, or suspend a driver's license over a teenagers’ poor performance.

Instead its always a cry for more funding. Funding that will never be available.

Posted by: Guy Montag Doe at July 22, 2008 01:18 PM

It is the parents not the funding and not the schools that lead to dropouts. Unfortunately unless you place a restriction on who can procreate you will always have a group at the bottom who don't value education enough to insure their children receive one.

Posted by: sean at July 22, 2008 03:04 PM

Unfortunately, civic leaders in some places-- like Burbank-- are deliberately conflating graduation and dropout rates, to make the former look like the latter. They are two different things-- the dropout rate does not at all represent the graduation rate.

For instance, a city with a 5% dropout rate will try to pass this off by inferring a 95% graduation rate, which it is not. This is a common tactic for realtors and home sellers to try to pull. Also, I believe the dropout rate ends at the age of 17, so it does not take into consideration senior and late-junior year kids who leave school. So, it's really much worse in many communities.

Posted by: Jim Carlile at July 22, 2008 03:52 PM

Private schools it is a place where students are given top most education in an environment where the atmosphere is filled with learned skills and professionals. The school also provides extra curricular activities which gives the confidence to the youth in gaining knowledge.
http://www.teensprivateschools.com/

Posted by: arnold414 at August 3, 2008 10:23 PM

Girls schools have long been regarded as incubators of innovation, environments where the traditional and the cutting-edge combine to create an educational experience unlike any other. These girls schools believes that education is a life-long journey - a dynamic discipline that contributes towards the building of a strong character and the realization of an individual's potential. Recognized girls academies programs are very supportive in getting bright future to the girls The School is fortunate in its teachers and the low turnover of staff is a strong point of the School. The School is also committed to Staff Development through a wide range of on-going in-service programs and workshops, which cover not only academics but also areas such as psychological counseling, personality development and career counseling. These schools provide a perfect atmosphere for learning, growing and accomplishing meaningful goals.

http://www.girlschools.net/

Posted by: Girls Schools at September 16, 2009 03:44 AM

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