June California Primary Election Had Lowest Vote Turnout--And the Highest Vote by Mail Ever

“Voter turnout is noticeably lower in Los Angeles County, especially when compared with the San Francisco Bay Area where many more voters vote by mail and participation is high. Some analysts believe this to be due to the lack of promotion by the LA Registrar’s office of vote by mail balloting.”

In June, San Francisco had a turnout (40.2% of registered voters) more than double that of Los Angeles, a majority (51.8%) cast by mail, significantly more than Los Angeles County.

The two counties, by the way, with the highest turnouts of over 60% of registrants, tiny Alpine and Sierra counties, had 100% vote by mail turnouts. (I don’t believe they had any precincts open on election day).

Another telling statistic released in the Secretary of State’s final election returns is that as a percentage of those who are eligible to register and vote, only 19.75% of Californians--voted. The only election going back to at least 1915 with a lower percentage (18.2%) was the primary election in 1916.

In Los Angels County, only 14.2% of those eligible to register and vote did so. And in this regard, LA is not in the cellar. That honor goes to San Bernardino County, where only 12.7% did so, followed by next door Riverside at 14%.

What this means, is that in the June election, where 50% meant victory in most primary battles and ballot propositions, less than 10% of all of those who could register and vote was all that was needed to win these races. We are lucky in these circumstances that we have dodged many bullets in such a low turnout election which can have skewed results—especially on the eminent domain ballot initiatives put on this ballot precisely because of the low turnout expected.

In fact in partisan primaries with three or more candidates running, it took less than this relatively low number to secure the nomination for state office. In the contested 46th Assembly District, for instance John Perez became the Democratic nominee for Assembly with 4,905 votes; in the 61st AD, Norma Torres won with 5,293 votes, and Felipe Fuentes, the incumbent who earlier won a special election to the seat won the nomination with 6,527 votes. These are not throwaway seat that the Democrat has no chance to win in the Fall—in fact, Fuentes is a lock to win in November.

California law requires all future California presidential primaries to be split as well. It would take legislative action to reunite future presidential primaries. That may be a good idea.

Meanwhile, we have our work cut out for November--even with all indications are that turnout will be heavy-- and with Barack Obama , the prohibitive favorite, already at work registering voters. This will be important to the dozen or so statewide measures that will be on the ballot—and to local races.

Maybe the Mayors of Los Angeles and San Francisco can have a friendly bet on who turns out the largest percentage of the eligible vote rather than who wins some sporting contest.

The last day to register to vote in the November 4, 2008, General Election is October 20. The last day to request a vote-by-mail ballot is October 28.