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Cavala: Latest California Field Poll Remind Us That It’s the Economy, Stupid! Inflation Worries Mean Regime Change

towashington 089.gif By Bill Cavala
A veteran of over 30 years in Sacramento

The latest Field Poll indicates that 63% of California’s registered voters believe they are economically “worse off” than a year ago.

The previous high water mark in economic anxiety in the last 50 years – 50 years! – took place in 1991-2. The Bill Clinton landslide. Anxiety during that period hit 50%, and, unfortunately for the Democrats, remained high enough to cost us the Congress in 1994.

Prior to that the high points in economic anxiety were the high gas prices of 1973 that led (with a little help from Watergate) to the Democratic sweep of 1974 (Jerry Brown) and the 1979-80 period of record interest rates and high inflation that led to the downfall of Jimmy Carter and the election of Ronald Reagan.

Those numbers were in the low 40’s (1970’s) and high 40’s (early 1990’s).

Today that anxiety percentage is 63%. And that’s unprecedented.

Where does it come from? Wages have been stable over the last few years while profits soared. Family budgets have been hit hard by inflation in food prices, health insurance and gasoline. Importantly, the value of the family home (we’re talking home-owning registered voters here, not the population at large) is declining. An expected yearly increase in the value of home equity has been the savings account of middle-class voters.

The usual measures of recession – unemployment, new home starts, and so on – only indirectly touch on the families that vote. Those who register to vote and who participate in elections sufficient to survive Republican purges of the rolls enjoy upper middle class economic status – or at least upper middle class economic expectations. But this recession is different, it clearly is affecting them.

Over the decades since FDR the Republicans have been remarkably successful in avoiding electoral cleavages based on social and economic class. While it’s obvious to me that anyone receiving a paycheck should be a Democrat, it’s less obvious to voters – many of whom swallow the GOP propaganda that says vote like the business owner you someday will be.

But this year, with almost two thirds of the voters economically worse off compared to a year ago, that propaganda will ring hollow.

It isn’t just the Bush Administration and John McCain who will pay the price – it is the ideology of the Republican Party itself that could be rejected this year.

Bill Cavala was Deputy Director of the Assembly Speaker’s Office of Member Services where he worked for over 30 years. He attended undergraduate and graduate school in the 1960’s and received a doctorate in political science at UC Berkeley. He taught political science at UC Berkeley during the 1970's while he worked part-time for the State Assembly.

Cavala left teaching at UC Berkeley and went to work for Assembly Speaker Willie Brown in 1981 until his tenure as Speaker ended in 1995, and he has worked for his five successors as Speaker. He now manages election campaigns for Democratic candidates.

Posted on July 25, 2008

Comments

Comrade Cavala,

Just how much does a Professor at UC Berkeley get paid? What is their salary and benefits when compared to an "average Joe" getting a paycheck like me? Is a professor getting tenure (basically an unfire-able position) fair when that persons job performance may be lacking?

Your latest attempts at class warfare are admirable, but don't survive the first clash of reasonable thought:

Everyone wants to be rich(er)than they are don't they? Think about it...

You are playing on ENVY, perhaps unconciously, of those who make relatively little to oppose those who make more than they do...

Shouldn't hard work be rewarded with higher pay? More positions of responsibility?

Shouldn't those who do nothing to better themselves with education or plying the want ads get what they "deserve" which is relatively speaking not much?

By the way, the "Clinton Landslide" in 1991-2 was through the split vote of Bush-Perot. Who would have won if only Bush was challenging Clinton? Or even just Perot for that matter?

You really hope your readers don't remember anything from the past don't you? Context will always degrade a propagandist approach to issues.

Posted by: Jay Gould at July 25, 2008 02:09 PM

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Consumer sentiment rebounded in July from a 28-year low and business investment rose unexpectedly last month, according to data on Friday that showed rare signs of resilience for the U.S. economy.

Link: http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080725/bs_nm/usa_economy_dc_4

Maybe it isn't as bad as you are painting it?

Posted by: sean at July 25, 2008 03:03 PM

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