Cavala: Field Poll Suggests G.O.P. “Comeuppance” This November in California

By Bill Cavala
A veteran of over 30 years in Sacramento

“Comeuppance” was the term my grandmother used to describe someone getting their just deserts for a life of wrong doing. The latest Field Poll results suggest it will be the fate of Republican candidates this Fall.

President Bush has just surpassed Richard Nixon’s record low esteem rating for politicians. And now the Field Poll shows a 20 point disparity in voter evaluation of the two political parties – in favor of the Democrats.

Similar surveys in 2002 and 2004 predicted the state’s division of the vote between the two parties reasonably accurately. It could mean that previously “red” geography in California turns “blue” this Fall.

As our recent June Primary evidences again, voter turnout is not a product of low visibility, down ticket contests. In the 50 years since the American Voter was published, behavioral studies of voting behavior have shown the same pattern: voters respond to close national elections where the perceived differences between the candidates are clear and where they think they have some personal stake in the outcome.

Iraq and the economy and George Bush and the Republican ‘brand’ have, to date,defined the G.O.P. standard bearer for Californians. His comparatively liberal position on immigration reduces the salience of his election to conservatives. Will the effort to salvage traditional notions of marriage be enough to overcome these liabilities? Or will Republican registrants – faced with a lackluster and obviously losing candidate and a party headed by a president they don’t like either – simply stay home in droves as they did in 1976.

California replaced Ronald Reagan with Jerry Brown and gave Democrats a 2/3 majority in both Houses of the Legislature.

Bill Cavala was Deputy Director of the Assembly Speaker’s Office of Member Services where he worked for over 30 years. He attended undergraduate and graduate school in the 1960’s and received a doctorate in political science at UC Berkeley. He taught political science at UC Berkeley during the 1970's while he worked part-time for the State Assembly.

Cavala left teaching at UC Berkeley and went to work for Assembly Speaker Willie Brown in 1981 until his tenure as Speaker ended in 1995, and he has worked for his five successors as Speaker. He now manages election campaigns for Democratic candidates.

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