Cavala: Feinstein Swamps All Lesser Boats in Contest for Governor

By Bill Cavala
A veteran of over 30 years in Sacramento

U.S. Senator Diane Feinstein defeats former Governor Edmund G. (Jerry) Brown by a two-one margin in a recently released survey of likely California voters.

The poll, by Jim Moore of Moore Methods, shows Brown comfortably ahead of the usual suspects (the SF Mayor, the LA Mayor, the Lt. Governor, the Treasurer) when Feinstein is excluded from the mix. When she’s added, the score is 50-24, Feinstein over Brown.

While there is no such thing as a sure thing in politics, this is as close to a lay down as you are likely to see. It means that none of the “likely” candidates would be”likely” to run if Difi throws her hat in the ring. Those who had been looking at it would then probably heed Bobby Kennedy’s sage advice to want-to-be’s: “if you can win, run; if you can’t win, don’t run”.

There was a good reason that Richard Mountjoy won the GOP nomination for US Senator in 2006: no Republican of stature or wealth wanted the “opportunity”. The same good reason will cause the Insurance Commissioner and former Rep. Campbell to slink away in 2010.

Would the Senator want the job? Lest we forget, she sought it in 1990, losing by a whisker to U.S. Senator Pete Wilson – rung in by the Republicans to force redistricting into the courts. Wilson won by endorsing term limits during the final weeks of the campaign. No Republican of Wilson’s stature exists today to challenge Feinstein – who owns an image with voters far stronger than either she or Wilson enjoyed in 1990.

Should Feinstein seek the Executive position, the consequences would be significant. It would mean a Democratic Governor prepared to sign a redistricting measure passed by the Democratic legislative majority. It would mean an end to the Chamber of Commerce’s heyday in Sacramento. It would mean a Governor elected without significant obligations to Capitol interest groups.

And, it would mean that Governor Feinstein would appoint a U.S. Senator to fill out her vacant term until the election of 2012.

All this isn’t good news for the men who were planning to run for Governor – or for the lawmakers who were planning to seek the vacated offices of the men running for Governor. With term limits, all of those men will be out of government by the time Governor Feinstein finishes her second term.

Won’t she be too old? Voters don’t seem to think so…..!

Bill Cavala was Deputy Director of the Assembly Speaker’s Office of Member Services where he worked for over 30 years. He attended undergraduate and graduate school in the 1960’s and received a doctorate in political science at UC Berkeley. He taught political science at UC Berkeley during the 1970's while he worked part-time for the State Assembly.

Cavala left teaching at UC Berkeley and went to work for Assembly Speaker Willie Brown in 1981 until his tenure as Speaker ended in 1995, and he has worked for his five successors as Speaker. He now manages election campaigns for Democratic candidates.

Comments

Posted by: Eden at July 28, 2008 04:02 PM

Posted by: cavala at July 28, 2008 04:43 PM

Posted by: Jay Gould at July 30, 2008 07:38 PM

Get Email Updates

Want the California Progress Report by email? Once a week, we'll send you the latest and greatest headlines.