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Cavala: Could Redistricting ‘Reform’ Make California Competitive For John McCain? (No)

towashington 089.gif By Bill Cavala
A veteran of over 30 years in Sacramento

California’s latest Field survey gives Barack Obama a 24 point lead, 54-30.

Could you divide up the state such that you could bury Obama’s lead in a portion of the state, giving McCain voters a chance to win in other areas?

Such was the aborted plan of the Republicans earlier this year when they sought to have California’s electoral votes divided proportionately by district rather than “winner take all” as is the case under current law.

As the Field Poll shows, there are places in the state where McCain is competitive: Southern California excluding Los Angeles County. The Central Valley.
Far Northern California when Sacramento County and the North Coast are excluded.

Any redistricting scheme that requires compact districts and which makes city and county boundaries sacrosanct will have to reflect the geographic realities of California voters: GOP conservatives have been banned to the hinterlands. Democrats control the Coast and the urban landscape. That means to produce “competitive” districts where neither party dominates the registration you will have to place geography second.

Instead of 20 safely Democratic seats in Los Angeles, why not run seats from LA to Ventura, San Bernardino, Riverside and Orange like spokes on a wheel? Doing that would make it possible to create more than enough 45-37 seats to make it possible for both parties to compete for control. (45-37 because Republicans vote at a higher rate than do Democrats).

Does Prop 11 – the Republican redistricting ‘reform’ achieve this goal? Quite the opposite. Not only does it NOT make “competitive seats” a goal, it adopts criteria which would make their creation illegal. It even denies the line drawers the basic information they would need to make a seat competitive

What Prop. 11 does accomplish is not more competition. It substitutes safe REPUBLICAN districts for safe Democratic districts. Like the allocation of electoral votes proportionately, the result is entirely to the benefit of the GOP.

By calling the result “fair”, and by recruiting an odd cast of characters who repeat this mantra, the GOP has entranced some good government groups and most gullible journalists into supporting their measure. Should it pass and be followed by Republican victories in the new seats they will shrug and call it ‘nature’s way’.

It’s not. It’s simply another version of the Republican willingness to alter the rules to maintain power. Transforming “motor voter” into a positive purge. Raising false concerns over voting by “illegal” immigrants to impose hurdles and hoops to voting that are pointed at the poor and people of color. Opposing all efforts to end supermajority requirements in law and the Constitution that provide them with a veto of majority demands. Now a redistricting proposal that will increase their number of seats in the Legislature at the expense of the Democrats – without increasing their support from the voters.

Bill Cavala was Deputy Director of the Assembly Speaker’s Office of Member Services where he worked for over 30 years. He attended undergraduate and graduate school in the 1960’s and received a doctorate in political science at UC Berkeley. He taught political science at UC Berkeley during the 1970's while he worked part-time for the State Assembly.

Cavala left teaching at UC Berkeley and went to work for Assembly Speaker Willie Brown in 1981 until his tenure as Speaker ended in 1995, and he has worked for his five successors as Speaker. He now manages election campaigns for Democratic candidates.

Posted on July 16, 2008

Comments

OK Bill (1) congrats -you are a gerrymandering expert, you draw spokes of a wheel out of LA to far away places. No, can't do, the Prop 11 districts would be compact.(2) Does Prop 11 say that all or every district is competitive? No. But more would be so when we clean up the "mess" left over from redistricting of 2001. (3) Well, it's Wednesday, that's when your "spin" perks up.
Sincerely, Larry Gallup

Posted by: larry gallup at July 16, 2008 06:36 PM

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