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California Voters Rejecting Ballot Proposition to Overturn Supreme Court Ruling on Same Sex Marriage 51% to 42% in Field Poll: An Analysis of the Numbers

By Frank D. Russo

The California Field Poll has just released their findings showing that if the election were held today, California voters would reject the “Limit on Marriage” Constitutional Amendment by a margin of 51% to 42%. A look at the numbers reveals that this measure is in deep trouble, as knowledge about the initiative measure is high for this far in advance of the November election and it is rare, once an initiative falls behind, for it to gain more yes votes.

Field found that 62% of the likely November electorate have already seen or heard about Proportion 8.
Field then asked:

“(As you know) Proposition 8 is the “Limit on Marriage Constitutional Amendment.” It amends the California constitution to provide that only marriage between a man and a woman is valid or recognized in California. If the election were being held today, would you vote YES or NO on Proposition 8, the Limit on Marriage Constitutional Amendment?”

Not only is a majority (albeit 51%) opposed to this measure, one of the most significant findings is that only 7% of likely voters are undecided. The proposition is not ahead with voters in any age groups, including the state’s 65 year old and above category where it trails, within the margin of error 47% to 46%, the closes it comes to breaking even.

Field’s numbers are remarkably similar to ones they obtained shortly after the California Supreme Court’s ruling in a large sample of voters. Take these two polls together and you have some bad news for the proponents of Prop 8. As we reported on May 28:

“The California Field Poll, long considered the gold standard of state polls, has just released a survey of 1052 California voters that shows the ground has shifted on same sex marriage and by a large margin they support same-sex marriage and will defeat a measure that looks likely to qualify for the November ballot. The results are unmistakable as Field asked a number of questions in a number of different ways over a ten day period ending Monday.

“By a margin of 51% to 42% California voters support allowing gay and lesbian couples to marry. Split into a random subsample, by a 54% to 40% margin, voters oppose the idea of changing the California State Constitution to define marriage as between a man and a woman, thereby barring marriage between gay and lesbian couples. Another subsample, by a 51% to 43% margin, would vote against a November ballot initiative defining marriage as between a man and a woman.”

What Field’s numbers today show is that there is a deep party divide on Prop 8, with Democrats opposed by a 63% to 30% margin, Republicans in support by a 68% to 27% spread, and the state’s “non-partisan/others” opposed even more strongly than the Democrats by a 66% to 27% margin. In Field’s electorate, 43% are expected to be Democratic and 23% are expected to be non-partisan/others. With only 34% of the voters being Republican Party members, it is hard to see how this measure can pass. And the distribution of the undecideds—mostly Democrats and independents, makes it even more difficult—only 5% of Republicans are undecided.

Prop 8 is behind in the coastal counties that make up almost 70% of the electorate by a 56% to 37% level and is supported in inland counties 54% to 40%.

Female votes are more opposed by 54% to 40% than male voters who are opposed 49% to 45%.

Latinos, expected to make up slightly less than a fifth of the California electorate, are the only racial or ethnic group in support of the ballot proposition, but even here there is a lack of a majority in the 49% to 38% support with 13% undecided.

From a political ideology spectrum, only those voters who are strongly conservative or moderately conservative are supporting Prop 8—and by large margins. But the other voters, from self described “middle-of-the-road” voters to the strongly liberal are strongly opposed—and these groups make up 71% of the electorate.

Breaking the results down by religion, 56% of Protestants are in favor of Prop 8—fueled by the evangelical Christians in their numbers who are in support by a 66% to 31% margin. But the state’s Catholics appear to be split—45% opposed and 44% in support—and all other groupsing are two to one or more opposed.

There is another dynamic that may play itself out before the election to increase the no vote on Prop 8. With the three-quarters of Californians who personally know or work with gays or lesbians, the measure is behind 545 to 40%. With the quarter who do not know or work with gays or lesbians, the measure is ahead by a narrow 48% to 45%. As more same sex marriages take place, and some of this latter group learns that some of the folks they know or work with are gay or lesbian, one would expect support for Prop 8 to lessen with this group.

Field’s poll is based on a sample of 672 Californians between July 8 and 14 and has a margin of error of 3.9%. Combined with the previous poll Field took, there is a large sample that makes today’s results a pretty reliable indicator of where the vote is headed.

Posted on July 18, 2008

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