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California Voters Prefer Democratic Party Over Republicans by 23 Point Margin--and in Generic Vote for Congress Give Democrats a 20 Point Advantage—Largest Gap Seen in Field Poll

By Frank D. Russo

The California Field Poll released results today that shows the state’s likely voters overwhelmingly favoring the Democrats over Republicans—by margins even larger than the ten and half percentage advantage they have in voter registration. Field also recorded the largest advantage—48% to 28% in the generic vote Californians indicate they would cast for Congress were the election to be held today.

There are no two ways around these results. California Democrats like their party better than Republicans like theirs. Non-partisan/others also have a much higher opinion of the Democratic Party.

To start off with, California Democrats have the highest advantage in voter registration they have ever had in California—some 1.8 million more Democrats than Republicans. Democratic registration clocks in at 43.7% compared with 32.5% for Republicans. The remaining 23.8% of Californians are not registered with either the Democrats or the Republicans and are classified as “decline-to-state/others.”

Field’s poll numbers show that when asked: “Generally speaking, do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of (the Democratic party) (the Republican party)?” that likely voters gave a favorable response to the Democratic Party by a 54% to 42% level—with only 4% having no opinion. When asked about the Republican Party, the favorability rating was only 31% with unfavorable at 63% and 6% with no opinion.

Broken down, Field’s numbers show Democrats have a favorable view of their party by a much larger 79% to 16% margin than Republicans have of their own party at 59% to 34%. This does not bode well for a party that has a smaller registration base to begin with.

With the important segment of voters who are not aligned with either party, the Democrats are seen favorably 50% to 48% and Republicans are seen unfavorably by a margin of 74% to 24%.

Field next asked: “In the November election for House of Representatives in your district, do you plan to vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate? (IF UNCERTAIN, PROBE:) Well, which party’s candidate do you lean towards at this time?” Here, the response is that 48% would vote for the Democratic candidate and 28% for the Republican candidate for Congress with 24% saying they have no opinion or would vote for another candidate. That is a 20 point margin in the generic vote for Congress.

Field has been asking this generic Congress vote question since 2002. They say that this indicator cannot predict exactly how the elections in each of the 53 Congressional Districts will turn out—but that it “frequently provide[s] clues as to the relative strength statewide of the two major parties in the upcoming election.”

With that caveat, these results dovetail well with the analysis by David Dayen on the key Congressional District Races in California that we published this morning.

In July of 2006, the Democrats had an 8 point advantage in the generic vote likely for Congress recorded by Field. By the time the campaigns had rolled out and the actual votes recorded, they had garnered 58.7% of the vote to the Republican’s 41.4% across all the Congressional Districts—a 17.4% margin. In August of 2004, Democrats had a 7 point advantage in the generic poll and actually received 10.7% more of the vote. In January and September of 2002, the Democrats had a 3 to 4 point lead on this question and actually received 7.2% more of the vote.

With additional voter registration drives by the California Democratic Party and the Obama campaign, if these past elections are any guide, the Democratic surge could be higher. This election is reminding me of the 1976 election after Watergate where the Democrats captured a two-thirds majority in both houses of the state legislature. The only impediment is in the lines drawn when the districts were created, which favor the party holding those seats and may blunt the “surge” to the Democrats underway here in California.

Field's poll was taken between July 8 and 14. It has a margin of error of 3.9% on the generic vote for Congress and 5.6% on the favorability ratings of the parties. Bear in mind this is a poll of likely voters.

I can’t see a silver lining in these numbers for California Republican diehards, especially with the financial problems the state GOP has experienced.

Posted on July 24, 2008

Comments

Dr. Russo,

I have no doubt the field poll is accurate. The GOP in CA has been fairly dysfunctional for many years. And let’s be honest, CA politics are driven by urban areas such as SF, and LA.

This year potentially marks taxes being raised even higher than in NY, and it appears even more businesses are making their exit from the Golden State. (The proposed Toyota Prius plant, and all AAA offices as example). This really is no surprise, high income is mobile, and the economy is such that many businesses can (and do) relocate. The weather in CA isn't everything.

With the Democrat party majority (2/3rds for budget issues) just around the corner, I'm a little curious as to your take on the future here in CA. Leadership should mean some responsibility.

Let’s assume the Democrat party remains in power here in CA (and obtains a free pass with legislation possibly next term). How high will the law makers be willing to push new regulations, and new taxes on businesses (and high income earners) before the numbers are no longer sufficient to promote innovation, and job creation? Or has that 'tipping point' already been reached?

Since the census already suggests an exodus (a gold rush) leaving CA, how far can we go before the high end, and upper middle tax base are largely gone? How much can CA finance with bonds before it becomes unsustainable?

I'm curious if Democrats have thought that far ahead? Not everyone can work for the public sector you know.

Posted by: Guy Montag Doe at July 24, 2008 09:29 AM

Excellent questions and points Mr. Doe. I echo them.

The High Speed Rail (HSR) bond measure on November's ballot is the latest trip into financial fantasy land. It's cost to state taxpayer (without the likely cost overruns mind you)is half of the existing state budget deficit.

Plus:

-The right of way isn't solidified in keyt areas with the UP Railroad

-The path of WHERE the tracks will be laid isn't solidified either

-When the tracks will be laid WHERE are also "political" issues for politician posturing, not what is the better business plan...

-...In fact there is NO CURRENT BUSINESS PLAN FOR HSR, as Senator Roy Ashburn exposed in the Transportation comittee.

-There are NO-ZERO-ZIP-NADA private investors involved as yet in HSR; the bond measure is supposed to "attract" them. If it was going to be profitable, they would be there now...

And the whole thing is so LA and the Bay Area have a more conveniet and cheaper way to commute between the two locations at the expense of ALL of the taxpayers in the state. (More Express trains between LA/SFO, fewer locals for Valley residents).

Not against HSR, but FOR DOING IT RIGHT. And we are not anywhere near the latter today. It is merely a "green-feel good" plan today which our grandkids will be paying for tomorrow.

Posted by: Jay Gould at July 24, 2008 10:16 AM

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