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Write-In Votes Will Determine if Republican Senator Maldonado Has a Democratic Opponent on the November Ballot—If So, He May Be in Trouble

More Than Enough Voters Wrote in a Name in the 15th Senatorial District—But Did They Vote For Democrat Dennis Morris?

frankrusso-small.jpg By Frank D. Russo

Votes are still being counted in a number of races across the state and in some of the closer ones, the outcome will not be known for sure until all straggling ballots are cast.

But in the 15th Senate District race which stretches across 5 counties on the California Central Coast, which could determine if Democrats get an important two-thirds majority in that house, the result will depend on whether enough Democrats have written in the name Dennis Morris. It is a district where the incumbent, Republican State Senator Abel Maldonado is the most vulnerable of all the Senate Republicans running this year. Democratic registration has been surging in this district and there is not a 40.5% to 36.2% edge they have over Republicans—the highest of any seat not in Democratic hands.

Yet no Democrat filed regular nomination papers to run. Some took out papers but they were not turned in. Democratic Senate President pro Tem Don Perata was grateful that last year Maldonado supplied the first vote from Republican Senators for passage of the state budget and is not going to lift a hand to help any Democrat. So the only way a Democrat will appear on the ballot in November is if 3,689 voters have written in Morris.

After Morris qualified as a write-in candidate, Maldonado was worried enough about this prospect that he turned in papers himself to run as a write-in candidate for the Democratic nomination—even though he is a Republican. This generated a bit of press and raised the visibility of Morris’ effort, and as best as I can tell there was no active campaign by Maldonado as a write-in candidate—probably out of fear of stirring up the pot and helping Morris with a difficult and late effort to get on the ballot.

More than enough voters wrote something on that section of the ballot—someone’s name or made some marks—but we don’t know if they put in Mickey Mouse, Maldonado, or Morris. It’s not uncommon for voters to do strange things with write-ins—and they are not counted unless a candidate files to run as such.

This is a cliffhanger that we won’t know about until about June 20, as write in votes in each of these counties will be counted last.

So, here is what we know so far.

In San Luis Obispo County, there were 1,989 write-ins identified on election night when ballots were fed through machines. In Monterey, 1,182. In Santa Cruz, another 897. And in Santa Barbara another 413. That totals 4,481. And we don’t have any figures from Santa Clara County that supplied 24.4% of the Democratic votes in this district the last time the seat was contested in 2004. If Santa Clara County voters follow the rule of thumb of the other counties, there should be at least another thousand or more write-ins.

And in each of these counties there are a number of ballots not included in the initial election night sweep—vote-by-mail ballots or absentee ballots as they used to be called that were either dropped off at the polling place on election day or arrived in the mail at the registrar’s office on election day and were not opened until later. Also provisional ballots. These are thousands of ballots that will undoubtedly contain many more write-ins. In fact, Morris’ write in campaign got rolling—as much as it did—late. So a higher percentage of late voters would have been aware of it.

So, who knows? Maybe Maldonado and his campaign, as they now have a website for the general election. Maybe they are taking Dennis Morris seriously for the upcoming election that will see a surge of Democratic voters for the presidential race.

All Democrats need is a pick up of two Senate seats and they will have the two-thirds to pass a budget on their own and other important legislation. The adjoining 19th Senate District where Democrat Hannah-Beth Jackson is running for an open seat—is the other best prospect for a pickup. The Central Coast and environs could be crawling with campaign workers and get a lot of attention.

We’ll see in a couple of weeks.

Posted on June 05, 2008

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