Poll: Roseville’s Democrat Charlie Brown Leads Republicans Ose and McClintock for Doolittle Congressional Seat

“Charlie Brown is leading both his possible opponents. Brown benefits from higher net favorability than both of his potential GOP opponents even though GOP spent about $2 million against Brown when he last ran for Congress and even though Brown is being compared with two established politicians who have already spent more on this race than Brown has spent in two races combined. Brown also benefits from a sharp trend in the district toward a Democratic candidate, which is evident in partisan identification, the fact that favorability toward Obama and McCain are comparable, and on the generic ballot for Congress.

“Voters Want Change

“7 in 10 voters are pessimistic about the direction of the country, up sharply from our poll just before the 2006 election where a bare majority (51%) believed the nation was headed down the wrong track. Voters are unhappy with the way things are going and want change.”

When asked the question, “In general, do you think that things in the nation are heading in the right direction or are they headed off on the wrong track?” by a 70% to 18% margin, voters felt the nation was heading in the wrong direction.

Brodnitz goes on:

“Despite a 48% to 31% GOP party registration advantage, the major parties are almost at parity in terms of the number of voters who identify themselves as Democrats or Republicans. The GOP advantage on party self-identification is now 2%, which is down from 15% in August of 2006.”

Voters were asked: “In general, do you consider yourself a strong Democrat, a weak Democrat, a strong Republican, a weak Republican or an Independent?” 37% considered themselves to be Republican and 3%% Democratic with a large number—critical to success in this district—28%--considering themselves independent or having no affiliation. The numbers here are sharply different from August of 2006 when 42% identified as Republicans, 27% as Democrats, and 31% as independents.

Brodnitz says, “It is also important to keep in mind that a plurality of district voters are moderate, not conservative: 42% say they are moderate, compared with 37% who are conservative and 17% who are liberal.” His memo goes on:

“Generic Ballot Tied

“The generic Democratic and Republican candidate for Congress are tied at 43%. Republicans face trouble, as 17% of registered Republicans support the generic Democrat, and the Democrat leads by 16% among Independents.”

Voters were asked: “If the election for Congress was held today would you prefer to vote for a … for Congress?” 78% of Democrats expressed preference for a Democrat, 70% of Republicans for a Republican, and by a 50% to 34% margin decline to state voters (independents) had a preference for a Democrat. Telllingly, 17% of Republican voters expressed a preference for a generic Democrat and 13% did not know their preference. That is much higher than for Democrats in this district.

Brodnitz then advises:

“Brown Beats Both Republican Opponents

“Brown is in good position as we head into the 2008 general election he has a 4% advantage over Ose – Brown receives 38%, Ose 34%, and 27% are undecided. Brown also leads McClintock 42% to 40% (18% are undecided). Independent swing voters prefer Brown over both Ose and McClintock by 20 and 21 points respectively. Both possible opponents have trouble retaining Republican support – a higher percentage of Republicans defect toward Brown than Democrats defect toward either Republican candidate.”

There are some key findings here as to favorability ratings that may be driving the electorate at this stage. Brodnitz advises that Brown “has higher net favorability than McClintock because while McClintock has higher favorable ratings, he also has significantly higher unfavorable ratings as well. It is also notable that Obama and McCain have almost identical ratings despite the GOP heritage of the 4th CD.”

Obama has very favorable ratings of 31% compared with 21% for McCain. His overall favorability is 57% to 34% or a net positive 23%. McCain has a 58% favorable to 35% unfavorable rating for a net positive 25%. Bush, by the way is at 17% positive in this district.

Charlie Brown has a 36% to 18% favorability edge or a positive 18%. McClintock has a 39% to 29% favorability edge or a positive 10%. Doug Ose has a 27% to 28% rating which is a net negative 1%.

You can tell why John Doolittle is not running for re-election as he has a 32% favorable to 48% unfavorable rating or a net unfavorable rating of 16%.