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How Will California Respond to $200 a Barrel Oil?
By Robert Cruickshank
As we're all painfully aware, during the '00s the US media have become ardent defenders of the status quo, generally unwilling to discuss harsh realities that might threaten that status quo unless absolutely forced to do so - Hurricane Katrina, for example, or the reaction to Al Gore's An Inconvenient Truth. Perhaps the most significant issue not being discussed in the media is peak oil - which, in its simplistic form, explains why the high fuel prices we are seeing today are going to be a permanent feature of life.
Gas prices are NEVER coming back down - rising demand is meeting a shrinking supply and the result is the end of the cheap oil that modern America was built upon.
As gas prices remain high more media outlets are discussing energy policy but only lately are they beginning to acknowledge that the era of cheap oil is over. Yesterday's Los Angeles Times starts examining the topic with a front-page feature, Envisioning a world of $200-a-barrel oil. It focuses on how consumers, transportation, and global trade will be affected, and even tries to examine the "upside" to this, particularly the eventual localization of American life, perhaps the closest a major American media outlet has come to embracing the ideas of Jim Kunstler.
The article is a good beginning, but it avoids the key question of how we ought to respond. Videoconferencing and staycations are not substitutes for statewide initiatives to deal with the crisis. The article discusses the airline crisis but doesn't discuss ways to provide alternative forms of transportation such as high speed rail. Nor does it discuss ways to encourage more renewable energy sources, or local food production, or urban density.
Still, just as it took Al Gore's movie to convince Californians to take even the small step of climate change action embodied in AB 32, so too will it take the media's willingness to tell Californians that cheap oil is over to produce action on shifting our state away from an oil-based economy.
Cheap oil was responsible for much of the prosperity of the postwar era, especially in California. It enabled people to find an affordable home to purchase, even if it was distant from their workplace. It enabled them to buy inexpensive food without needing to grow their own. It enabled the development of global trade networks that provided markets for Californian products and services.
The end of cheap oil is welcome from an ecological perspective but it will finish off working Californians if we don't proactively work to build a post-oil infrastructure to provide for prosperity, just as we spent the 1950s and 1960s building an infrastructure around oil to provide for prosperity.
Newspapers like the LA Times could help show Californians the need for and value of such projects. It will require them to break with the status quo - but Californians are already doing so in practice, riding mass transit and even their bikes in much higher numbers than ever before. In the absence of media coverage of our changing state, we in the blogs will do what we can to keep up.
Robert Cruickshank is a historian, activist, and teacher living in Monterey. He is a contributing editor at Calitics.com and works for the Courage Campaign, in addition to teaching political science at Monterey Peninsula College. Currently he is completing his Ph.D. dissertation in US history, on progressive politics in San Francisco in the 1960s and 1970s. A native Californian, he was raised in Orange County and educated at UC Berkeley.
Comments
Lots of good points in the op-ed. I'd like to focus on two of them - high-speed rail and mass transit. The latter first.
I have wondered what different people's interpretation of mass transit is. It seems for folks living in Central San Joaquin Valley cities, i.e., of course, with the exception of Stockton, Tracy, Elk Grove and Sacramento in the Sacramento Valley for example, where rail mass transit in addition to transit bus services are offered, the thinking appears to be limited to transit bus operations providing intracity transit services to the exclusion of practically all other land-based mass transit mode offerings. This is highly understandable considering bus transit service is what Central Valley residents are exposed and used to. Contrast this with intercity transit, where buses and trains are it in the land-based mass transit mode domain.
Greater use of trains is evident. They have become accepted and utilized modes of mass public travel and are becoming more and more accepted and why high-speed rail is garmering greater support, no doubt. Adding to the interest or support is the fact that gas prices are going up, up, up and don't look like they're coming down in large measure any time soon.
As long as we're thinking and talking trains, for intracity transit, true intermodality in the form of trains, buses and even taxis is what's needed. Not one over or to the exclusion of another. Trains will likely never replace buses for public intracity transit needs, but it would be nice to have alternatives to choose from, not just being limited to buses only, I believe the buses only route stymying efficient, managed growth. Need proof, look at the Los Angeles to Long Beach Metro Blue Line light rail line with weekday boardings of over 70,000 (as of FY2004) - the nation's busiest, according to "Opening the Golden Gate: Discovering Gold in Los Angeles County," by Beth Wilson for the Community Transportation Association of America's Rail magazine publication, isse #11 and beginning on page 18. A pdf of this article is available on the CTAA website accessing the Rail publication. This 14-page article speaks volumes.
Posted by: Alan Kandel at June 29, 2008 05:11 PM
Great question! Oh, I know, I know. Call on me! The right answer is, build a $100 billion dollar luxury train down the Central Valley. We certainly don't need any accurate facts right now. We can always get them later, after the voters approve. This will be the shining train on the hill that will solve all our problems. No more cars. No more planes. No more dirty air. No more greenhouse. What if the costs are open-ended. So what? It's the vision that counts. It will change all of California forever. Thank you Quentin Kopp and Rod Diridon for leading us to the promised land. Deniers beware. You don't know the right answers. You will be damned to our contempt and perdition.
And, what do I know! I live next to the tracks and therefore have no right or reason to complain.
Posted by: Martin Engel at June 30, 2008 09:32 AM
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