Field Poll Shows Support for Prop 13 Remains Strong 30 Years Later, But Voters May Favor Some Changes

Renters are much more clueless about Prop 13, with over 70% fessing up that they are not too familiar with it or even less. On the other hand, homeowners are much more familiar with it—even new home buyers and those who have owned their homes for longer time periods respond that they are very familiar—including 74.5% of those who have owned their homes for 30 years or longer.

Filed next asks: “(Based on what anything you may have seen, read or heard about Proposition 13,) if Proposition 13 were up for a vote again today, do you think you would vote in favor of it or vote against it?”

The results show that by a 57% to 23.4% margin, registered voters would pass Prop 13 again. 19.6% say they don’t know. There’s a separate crosstab that shows that over half of those who are not too familiar with Prop 13 nevertheless are included in those who have expressed a response as to how they would vote on it.

Prop 13 would be passed by Democrats by a lower margin of 47.8% to 30.4% and by independents by 53% to 25.5%, and Republicans are very strong supporters at 72.1% in favor and 12.6% opposed. It has a majority with most groups, and is only opposed by those who identify as “strong liberals.”

Filed then asks a smaller subset this question with a preface: “Because of Proposition 13, property owners are generally taxed at one percent of the purchase price of a property at the time it is sold. However, because most properties have increased in value since Prop.13 was passed, this means that long-time property owners typically pay much less in property taxes than neighboring properties of similar value that were bought more recently. Would you approve or disapprove of changing Prop. 13 to gradually raise the property taxes of long-time property owners, so that the amount they pay is more in line with the amount being paid by more recent buyers of similarly valued property?"

The results seem pretty clear and overwhelming. Voters reject gradually increasing property taxes paid by longtime homeowners so they are more in line with new buyers taxes by a 66.1% to 27.1% romp. This includes every subgroup broken out including the strong liberals by 46.1 to 45.1, although that response is within the margin of error. No subtlety here—this is a loser with the voters.

Next question to a different subset: “Because of Proposition 13, local governments can only increase property taxes by a maximum of two percent per year unless the property is sold. Would you approve or disapprove of changing Prop. 13 to allow your local government to increase property taxes by more than two percent per year?”

This one has even a lower support level—17% in favor and 77.5% opposed. There’s no pulse here—no palpable support for allowing local governments to increase property taxes by more than 2% a year unless the property is sold.

The next two questions show viability with the voters of the idea of a split roll tax. Bear in mind that the responses here are made without the voters being provided with any more information (e.g., how commercial properties pay a lower and lower percentage of the overall property taxes because they turn over much less frequently than residential property).

Filed asks one subset this question: “Proposition 13 reduced property taxes on both residential and commercial property. Would you approve or disapprove of changing Prop. 13 to permit business and commercial property owners to be taxed at a higher rate than owners of residential property?”

46.5% are in support of allowing businesses to pay property taxes at a higher rate than residential owners and 43.5% are opposed. This includes Democratic support (55% to 33.6%) and independent support (46.4% to 43.9%--within the margin of error) and opposition by Republicans (56.5% to 35.5%). This concept has its strongest support amongst younger voters and support for it grows with more educated voters.

Voters were not asked specifically about the split roll concept that allows for assessing businesses on the increased value of property over time and not limited by the 2% annual increase per year in Prop 13. Nevertheless, this shows that they are in favor of business properties being charged a higher rate.

Another subset was asked: “Proposition 13 reduced property taxes on both residential and commercial property. Would you approve or disapprove of changing Prop. 13 to permit owners of residential property to be taxed at a lower rate than business and commercial property owners?”

If it includes lowering residential taxes, support increases to 61.1% are in support of a differential treatment of business property owners and residential property owners. Opposition is only at the level of 27.5%. This one passes overwhelmingly by Democrats and independents, and even passes with Republicans by 52.5% to 38.1%.

When it comes to allowing the legislature to increase taxes by a majority vote, the result is an overhwhelming “no!” A subset of voters was asked: “Proposition 13 generally requires a two-thirds vote of the state legislature to increase taxes. Would you approve or disapprove of changing Prop. 13 to enable the legislature to increase taxes by a simple majority vote?”

This was rejected by 71.5% to 22.9%, including even the “strong liberals” in opposition.

Taxes in General

There are some very interesting results about taxes in general. This will be reported on tomorrow.

If you want to look at the results, they are in the crosstabs.