Cavala: What Will California’s Budget Deadlock Bring?

Plan “B” of the Republicans might be to agree to a budget that anticipates new taxes and to provide the votes necessary to let voters decide the issue this Fall – voters will have to approve the Governor’s lottery gimmick at the same time. But the price the GOP would demand for “plan B” would be the rollback of environmental deadlines and as much of the Chamber of Commerce platform as they could coerce out of the majority.

Meanwhile, our Governor will continue to issue sound bites designed to make him look good and not to address the problem. Republican lawmakers believe he lacks principle. Democratic lawmakers know he’ll go along with anything that makes him look good (like an end to impasse) – but that he’s clueless as to how to make that happen. We should all recall that he sent his Director of Finance to Senator Denham’s district during last years budget to castigate him for obstruction – only to oppose the recall election of Denham based on that obstruction.

The Governor is clearly afraid to confront Members of his own party – and clearly has no friends among Members of his own party. In ‘big 5’ meetings, he’ll supply the room and the coffee, not much more.

Adding to this fun picture is the fact that the Republicans and the Democrat in seats that are marginal by party registration are all ‘termed out’ this year – which means that budget delays, compromises, cuts, taxes that might have been held against them this Fall can’t be held against them. Concern about budget fallout for Shirley Horton, Bonnie Garcia or Guy Houston (among the GOP) or upon Nicole Parra (among the Democrats) will be absent. I’ve never thought this amounted to much, but advocates of changes in redistricting procedures see it as the invisible hand that moderates extremists who must compromise to protect those in electoral danger. Well, this year, no danger.

In the end, would the failure of the Legislature to pass a budget really matter? While required by the Constitution, no one goes to jail or loses office for failing their duty. Voters – who oppose both the spending cuts and the tax increases necessary to restore sanity to the budget – will presumably be pleased with the absence of a document that requires neither. The Courts have eliminated many of the consequences of not having a budget – and could probably be counted on to allow continued spending mandated by law, budget or no. Columnists and editorial writers will rant, but they do anyway – without effect.

We would be spending more money than we had – illegal deficit spending – but we’ve done that for years without consequence. All of California’s spending on our Correctional Institutions is perilously close to being run completely by a guy hired by a Federal Judge. Maybe that’s the model for future governance?

By Bill Cavala
A veteran of over 30 years in Sacramento

Bill Cavala was Deputy Director of the Assembly Speaker’s Office of Member Services where he worked for over 30 years.

Mr. Cavala manages election campaigns for Democratic candidates.