Advertise Here

Deliver your message to thousands of readers every day.

Our readers are influential opinion makers - politicians, journalists and activists.

Our latest headlines

About Us

The California Progress Report is published by Frank D. Russo, a longtime observer of and participant in California politics.

About Frank Russo.
About California Progress Report.

Got a news tip? Want to write a guest column? Contact Frank here.

Books

Cavala: New California Registration Figures May Mean Democratic Gains in State Assembly Seats

towashington 089.gif By Bill Cavala
A veteran of over 30 years in Sacramento

In 2004 I ran the campaign for Patti Davis against Incumbent Shirley Horton in AD 78 – a San Diego seat running from Chula Vista to the northern neighborhoods of the City of San Diego. We lost by about 1200 votes with registration at 41% Democratic and 35% Republican. Maxine Sherard lost by about 5000 votes with similar registration in 2006.

Today registration in the 78th is 42.5% Democratic to 32% Republican – before any registration effort for November is made. That difference – a four point spread – translates into about 7000 net votes: the Republican loses 4000 and the Democrat picks up 3000. With those numbers both Davis and Sherard would have won their elections. After a voter registration drive, the Democratic nominee in AD 78 should win easily this November.

Assembly District 15 is the last remaining “Bay Area” seat held by the Republican Party. It is actually only partially “Bay Area”, since the GOP line drawers filled in the shortfall in population with Elk Grove, a Republican suburb of Sacramento, and with conservative territory in San Joaquin. Even with these additions, the seat has gone Republican by about 10 points (55% to45%) in past elections. Registration was at 38% Democratic and 40% Republican. Today it stands at 39% Democratic and 38% Republican. Additional registration could make the results here a squeaker.

In AD 80, the Coachella Valley/Imperial County seat, Steve Clute lost the state’s closest contest for the Democrats in a 45.6% Democratic to 37.4% Republican seat. Subsequently registration has moved to 46.3% Democratic to 35.6% Republican. With those figures, Clute would have defeated Bonnie Garcia handily.

In the central valley, Democrats have been used to financing huge voter registration drives to simply try and maintain their previous level of support. But the recent statistics show that AD 17, the site of million dollar campaigns for Mike Machado and Cathleen Galgiani, has improved from 47-37% to 48-35%. A registration drive should push Republican numbers below 35% and off the table of ‘competitive’ seats. In Fresno, the seat of Juan Arambula which had been losing registration for the last five years, not only stabilized this year, but showed marked improvement with a 2 point decline in Republican registration (36% to 34%). Only in AD 30, the Kern-Kings-Tulare-Fresno seat of Nicole Parra has registration been stable: 47%-38% when Parra won in 2006, 47%-38% for the Mayor of Shafter against the 2006 Republican loser, Gary Gilmore.

These new numbers say the Republicans will have as difficult a time holding onto AD 15 and the Democrats will have in AD 30. But Democrats should pick up AD 78 and AD 80 in a year when they only have one open seat to defend, and three in which to attack with registration gains still to be made and a high turnout in November guaranteed.

The geographic distribution of “red” voters and “blue” voters means that the elusive 2/3rds majority will remain out of reach for Democrats. As indeed it will until and unless some redistricting commission decides to add Hispanic Democrats from Los Angeles to the Republican seats on its rim for the sake of “competitiveness” and at the expense of the civil rights of Hispanics. But should the current “out of vogue” brand the Republicans enjoy continue into the future, California indeed could see the elimination of the GOP as anything but an impotent group of scolds.

Bill Cavala was Deputy Director of the Assembly Speaker’s Office of Member Services where he worked for over 30 years.

He attended undergraduate and graduate school in the 1960’s and received a doctorate in political science at UC Berkeley. He taught political science at UC Berkeley during the 1970's while he worked part-time for the State Assembly.

Cavala left teaching at UC Berkeley and went to work for Assembly Speaker Willie Brown in 1981 until his tenure as Speaker ended in 1995, and he has worked for his five successors as Speaker up to and including Speaker Fabian Nunez.

Mr. Cavala manages election campaigns for Democratic candidates.

Posted on June 02, 2008

Comments

Get Email Updates

Want the California Progress Report by email? Once a week, we'll send you the latest and greatest headlines.

Stat tracker