California Field Poll Reports on What Californians Want from State and Local Government and What They Want to Pay

Field starts off with a preliminary statement and then asks the first question: “Now, I have some questions on the subject of taxes... the questions I have are about state and local taxes, such as state income taxes, sales taxes, property taxes, business and corporation taxes, and state taxes on vehicle registrations, gasoline, tobacco and alcohol. On the whole, do you feel that the level of state and local taxes that the average citizen like yourself pays are much too high, somewhat high or about right?”

33.6% of voters answer this question, “much too high” and another 27.1% “somewhat high” while 37.3% say it is “about right.” Field has been tracking this since 1977 and the numbers of those who are in the much too high or somewhat high grouping have always been in the majority, fluctuating between a high of 78% and a low of 55%. The current level here (61% according to Table 7a of the report but seemingly 63.8% in the crosstabs) is within the middle of these response levels and is a bit on the lower side of what has been historical when this question was asked. [Editor's note added after publication: The crosstabs are the same are at 60.8%--I mistakenly added another column here.]

There are some interesting geographical breakdowns in the crosstabs with the highest response being “much too high” in Southern and Inland California and about right being the highest in Northern California and the Coast regions. And there’s a somewhat predictable breakdown by party with Democrats favoring the “about right” response (44.1%) and Republicans the “much too high” category (41.4%). What is interesting is that the non-partisan/others favor the “about right” response by the highest level (46.3%).

But to really get an idea of what is going on in the responses to this question, one must look at the phraseology of it and what it is asking. Note that it is of “average citizens such as yourself.” It’s not about taxes paid in general by society—or what “others” pay in taxes.

In the crosstabs, those who are high school graduates or with less than $20,000 of household income have the highest by far response to taxes being much too high. With increasing education, the levels favor the “about right” category. And “about right” is favored by those making above $20,000 of family income, with the highest response (42.3%) in the highest category of earning—over $80,000.

Then Field asks this question with these instructions of the poll takers: “Which specific state and local taxes, if any, do you feel are too high? Any others? (DO NOT READ ANSWER CATEGORIES) (ANSWER CAN BE A MULTIPLE)”

You can see the response to this in Table 8 in the report and also note the historic trends. The top tax identified in the current poll is the gasoline tax—by 32%, followed by the property tax (27%), state income tax (27%), sales tax (22%), and then tobacco tax, vehicle registration tax, alcohol tax, and business/corporation tax, with all of the latter in single digits.

This is the highest level for the gasoline tax. But even here, no tax is identified specifically as being too high by over a third of those polled, even though multiple responses were allowed.

Of the four taxes that can deliver the most revenue to help with California’s budget deficit, the state income tax and sales tax appear to be the most likely candidates from these numbers. This may explain why the governor in his most recent budget proposal put forth an increase in the sales tax as a backup if his proposed lottery measure fails with the voters. It also may give an opening to increasing the top rate paid by those with the highest income in the state—as was done before—by Republican Governors—when the state faced an intractable budget shortfall. And it explains why the tobacco tax was an attractive funding source for the health care reform proposal of the Governor and Speaker. There are other big hints here as to business and corporation taxes and most probably plugging loopholes.

Next, Field asks a random subsample of voters this question: “In general, would you like to see your state and local governments provide more services to the public or provide fewer services to the public?”

By a large 60.5% to 29.5%, voters want more services. The numbers here are across the board by every region and area of the state. The closest to parity they get is in the San Diego/Orange County area where even this conservative area favors more services by 49% to 41.8%. Democrats by 78.6% to 13.2% want more services as do non-partisan/others by 67.7% to 24.6%. Republicans favor fewer services by 54.7% to 31.3%. Om the ideological breakdown, only strong conservatives (and only by a margin of 51.3% to 36.2%) would like to see less services. The fact that amongst strong conservatives 36.2% want more services is newsworthy. But from thereon out on the political spectrum, there is support for more rather than less services—by moderate conservatives (49.8% to 33.8%), middle of the road voters (59.8% to 31.7%), moderate liberals (74.2% to 15.3%) and strong liberals (87.3% to 7.2%).

There is a gender gap as male voters want more services by 56.4% to 33.3% and female voters by an even larger 64.1% to 26.3%. And younger voters—those 18 to 29 favor more services by a whopping 82.4% to 10.4% as does every other age category except voters 65 and then it is a statistical tie at 42% to 42.5%, well within the margin of error.

The last question Field asks is the real “money question”: “In general, would you like to see your state and local governments provide more services to the public even if it means raising your taxes and fees, or provide fewer services to the public if this means that your taxes and fees will kept at or below current levels?”
Here, there is a 4 point spread, with 44.2% of voters wanting more services even if it means that their taxes will be raised and 40.1% opting for fewer services if it means that they taxes and fees will be at or below current levels.

Democrats (56.3% to 29.2%) and non-partisan/others (51.2% to 31.6%) want more services, even with higher taxes they will have to pay. Republicans (60.6% to 23%) want fewer services and keeping taxes where they are or lowering them. Patterns hold from the previous question with a gender gap (men 47.1% to 38.3% for fewer services and women the opposite 49.3% for increased services to 34% for fewer). Young voters—up to age 39-- want more services and pluralities of older voters (40 and up) want fewer services.

Field has asked this question over time and for consistency’s sake it is valuable to have it asked in the same form and wording as before.

But note that Field did not ask voters what the real choices are in the current budget: Raising taxes (not necessarily their taxes) in order to maintain current levels of service and avoiding major cuts versus having those major cuts made in services and keeping taxes the same (not lowering them).

Nonetheless, the Field numbers tell us a lot about why we have the current stalemate with a two-thirds majority needed for budget action. How voters will respond when they see the budget and financing that finally passes for the state budget and the effects on local government operations as well, remain to be seen.

Voters want more in services and have been willing in last week’s election to pass tax increases and bonds, even with high thresholds needed for approval including a 2/3 vote. Mark Paul of the New America Foundation wrote an excellent article for us on how the voters responded throughout California when faced with the real choices on programs versus taxes in “Thirty Years After Prop 13, California Voters Supported Tax Increases in Tuesday’s Election,” which I’d recommend reading along with the Field poll results.

The real results will be seen later this year with real cuts and real votes cast by Californians.