Big News in Today’s Field Poll: Boxer Positioned for Re-election

No doubt Pelosi gets backwash from California voters’ opinions about Congress, and there is disappointment by many with grid lock in that body and frustration by those on the left with her failure to end the War in Iraq, but if you look at the crosstabs of the poll published by the Sacramento Bee there appears to be a straight correlation with more liberal voters approving and conservative voters disapproving in the small numbers of voters in each of these subcategories.

Feinstein enjoys a 48% to 32% approval rating and has been at this level in the last three polls by Field. If you look at the range she has hovered in since Field first asked Californian about her in 1993, they are remarkably consistent. She had better ratings—really sky high in early and middle 2007 and the worst that she ever did in those 15 years was to get a 50% approval and 40% disapproval rating in 1995. And she does well with Democrats and non-partisan/others, and not so badly with opposition party Republicans, getting 2*% approval and 51% disapproval from them.

Boxer’s numbers are, if anything, slightly better than Feinstein’s with Democrats where she has a net positive 58 ponts. She does well with the non-partisan/others—44% to 24%, not quite as well as Feinstein’s 47% to 31%. And her numbers are not as good as Feinstein’s with the state’s Republicans, but they are better than many Democrats fare with the minority party.

Here’s the key: If you look back at the Field Poll ratings before the Boxer re-elects in 1998 and 2004, she was polling in the mid-40s, but ended up winning both of them.

Filed polled in October 2007 and pegged Boxer in a hypothetical race with Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. The result, at a time when Schwarzenegger had a high 56% to 32% rating and was one of the most popular elected figures in California was a statistical tie: 44% Schwarzenegger and 43% Boxer. Since then, Schwarzenegger’s numbers have tanked.

So today’s improvement for Boxer since the October 2007 Field poll results of 44% approval and 35% disapproval (a net plus 9 points) to today’s net 17 points is significant.

Californians have watched Senator Boxer over the years and know--or will be reminded-- that she doesn’t back down from a fight. Whether it’s going after the Bush Environmental Protection Agency, the War in Iraq, or taking care of California’s interests, she is a fighter. She’s is well positioned with an increasingly Democratic set of voters in California to be ready for whichever Republican decides to run.

Boxer’s grassroots base is exceptionally committed to her. Over 250,000 people are on her email list. She has a direct mail donor base of nearly 100,000 grassroots donors. (About 80% of her contributions are $100 and under.) Both of those lists are growing, even 3 years before the election. Last year, at an event featuring Al Gore just before he won his Nobel Prize, progressives nationally and in the state showed they are committed to keeping her in the Senate by not only refilling her coffers, but showing up in person.

This strong base gives her an edge going into any tough race and she can focus on talking to those voters in the middle who need to be reminded of her record of accomplishment.