Teach Your Parents Well: California Public Opinion and the Same Sex Marriage Proposition

"These results are the results of a paper, "Explaining Rising Support for Same-Sex Marriage in California" being presented this afternoon at the annual meeting of the Western Political Science Association, in Las Vegas, Nevada by Professors Gregory B. Lewis of Georgia State University and Charles W. Gossett of California State Polytechnic University, Pomona. This paper is not available online at the present time and puts California's polling data in the context of the nation and other states. It demonstrates that California is a leader of the national trend and also correlates the attitudes of our population with our legislature's actions.

"Support Levels for Same Sex Marriage

"The Field poll questions have remained the same during the six surveys analyzed here. In 1985, only 30% of those polled supported same sex marriage. This increased to 38% in 1997, and the average for surveys in 2003-2006 showed support by 43%.

"While only 25% of those born before 1940 are in support, that number has grown by 5% over these years. Those born in the 1940's are supportive at 40%, also a gain of 5%. Similar 7 and 8% increases are found for those born in the 1950's and 1960's, reaching above the 40% threshold. Those born in the 1970's and 1980's are in support by 51% and 58%.

"The same trends are apparent over time in those who identify themselves as "liberals" (increasing from 43% to 76%, a gain of 33 points) and "moderates" (climbing from 31 to 44%, a gain of 15 points). However, amongst self-styled "conservatives" a reverse trend is seen and the numbers have dipped from 20% support to 15%. There is an astonishing 61% spread between liberals and conservatives on this issue.

"The same general patterns hold for partisan identification, with Democrats supportive at a level of 59%, independents at 41%, and Republicans at 23%. There has been a marked shift in increased support over time amongst Democrats and independents, while Republicans are slightly less supportive by 3 points.

"Support has increased in every religious group identified, but the lowest level of support is amongst Protestants at 28% and represents a gain of only 4%. Catholics jumped 13% to 38% support. Those with "No religion" had the highest level of support at 71% followed by those who are Jewish at 70% (reported as being a small sample, but with this number being higher it must be of statistical significance), and "Other religions" at 55%."

Bear in mind that the Field poll numbers from this earlier report are based on the opinions of all Californians, registered to vote or not. The Los Angeles Times poll just taken May 20 and 21 is of registered voters. What will matter when this issue is finally on the ballot again is how those who actually vote make their decisions—not all Californians or all registered voters, but those who vote.

The LA Times numbers show a narrow rejection of gay marriage and purport to show that that a ballot proposition would pass to overturn the California Supreme Court decision. But if you look at the actual numbers by clicking on this link , especially how the voters moved when made known of the position of Arnold Schwarzenegger on this, the reporting of the LA Times on the poll on how ballot measures often are ahead long before an election and fade, the fact that the poll is not of likely voters, and the trend, there is hope for beating back this proposition.

There are anomalies in the poll, especially in the sample which may be small of younger voters that just don’t gibe with other polling on this subject. I had an opportunity to talk with Professor Charles W. Gossett of California State Polytechnic University, Pomona, who has written about this and is featured in the Field Poll, and he too is mystified by some of the subsamples. Dave Dayen has some good analysis of the LA Times numbers in his commentary today.

Much in the same manner as many parents have learned about their children about Barack Obama and become enthusiastic about the change he represents, it may be up to California’s younger voters to educate their elders on this issue. Crosby, Stills, Nash and Young sang “Teach Your Children” with the following lyrics:

“You who are on the road
Must have a code that you can live by
And so become yourself
Because the past is just a good bye.

Teach your children well,
Their father's hell did slowly go by,
And feed them on your dreams
The one they picked, the one you'll know by.

Don't you ever ask them why, if they told you, you would cry,
So just look at them and sigh and know they love you.

And you, of tender years,
Can't know the fears that your elders grew by,
And so please help them with your youth,
They seek the truth before they can die.”