Obama Has Support in the “White Working Class” Despite What the Pundits Say—A Look at the Numbers

By James V. Gambone, Ph.D.

In the aftermath of the West Virginia, Oregon and Kentucky primaries, the Clinton campaign and many media commentators have repeated the claim that Barack Obama is not attracting the white working class vote. It goes something like this: Without blue collar less educated and primarily white male voters, Obama cannot carry important swing states.

For argument’s sake let’s accept the claim that the unemployed Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Ohio or Indiana factory worker with no health care who voted for Hillary in the primary, will vote Republican in November if Obama is the nominee.

The claim that Obama doesn’t have tremendous support among white working class voters is patently false. Among voters under thirty from all class backgrounds, Obama is winning almost three to one in all primary states. These young adult voters -not just a bunch of college kids (the youth vote). In fact only about two in ten have any post secondary education. They do however represent two generations that don’t subscribe to identity politics defined by race or gender. Millions are single moms, working couples with children and no health care, make under $50,000 a year, have a high school education and worry about their future. There are millions of white men in this group and they are every bit as much working class as anyone described in by the Clinton campaign or repeated by news organizations and pundits. And for the Obama campaign, actual research shows the news only gets better for the November general election.

The young adult working class voter block is participating in record numbers in this primary season in every state.

The increased participation of this voter block (potentially 44 million voters) can be seen as the continuation of a trend that began in the Presidential election of 2004, grew in the off- year election of 2006, and now is beginning to look like a significant wave that could be a deciding factor in the 2008 November election.

The critics say the rate of young adults voting in 2008 primaries across the country “only” averages about 15% and that is not a much higher overall participation rate than the 2004 general election of 13%. Republican spokespeople particularly are using this analysis to play down the importance of these voters because they are not attracting a significant number of them in their primaries.

The comparison is basically inaccurate. To be statistically correct, you would need to compare how many 18-29 year olds participated in primaries in 2004, compared to the 13% national election participation figure. I have done that.

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