New Voter Registration Data Show Democrats Continue to Surge in California Statewide and in Key Districts—Expect Pick up of Seats

In State Senate District 15, if Democrats can get Dennis Morris on the ballot through a write in campaign, the seat which has had close elections in the past two cycles, could change from Republican Abel Maldonado to a Democrat. Four years ago when Maldonado narrowly won it, registration was 39.6% Republican to 38.5% Democratic. Now Democrats have the edge 40.5% to 36.2%.

Democrats continue to close the gap in Senate District 19, Santa Barbara and environs, currently held by arch conservative Republican Tom McClintock. Hannah-Beth Jackson, who represented parts of the district in the California Assembly, is making a bid for what could be the 27th Senate seat for the Democrats (assuming a pick up in Senate District 15 or elsewhere)—an important number because that is what is needed to pass a state budget and other important legislation. Four years ago when this seat last came up, registration favored the Republicans 42.8% to 35.7%--a 7.1% advantage. That is now down to 39.5 for Republicans, a drop of 3.3%. Democrats are now 37.5% of the district, a gain of 1.8%. The gap is now 2 points. What is important in this district is that many of the district’s 18% plus “decline to state” voters vote with the Democratic Party. Jackson is polling well in this important race which is expected to be close.

And Democrats are in much better shape in Assembly Districts 15, 78, and 80, among others. These are three districts where Republicans won by thin margins and where the Democrats are poised for a shift. Add in the 10th Assembly District and others—and with a big Democratic year, it is conceivable that Democrats could gain a two-thirds advantage in the 80 member house that they already have 48 votes in.

In AD 10 Democrat Allyson Huber is making a spirited race for the Democratic nomination. The fact that this is a contested primary is reflective of how this district is in play. The district now leans Republican by registration by 38.7% to 40.7%--a two point gap that is narrowing. Just two years ago there was a 4.8 advantage for Republicans who led 42.5% to 37.7%.

In Assembly District 15, centered in Contra Costa County, where Republican Guy Houston is term limited out, where Republican registration outstripped Democratic registration as late as January, Democrats are now ahead. In April, they surged to a 39.3% to 38.3% advantage. The Democratic advantage continues to grow to a 39.4% to 38.1% margin. Two years ago Republicans had a 40.6% to 37.9% advantage. The Democrats have long eyed this seat—the only one in the Bay Area still represented by a Republican. Democrat Joan Buchanan is a strong candidate and running virtually uncontested for this open seat.

In Assembly District 78 in San Diego where Republican Shirley Horton is termed out, Democrats were ahead in registration by 42.1% to 32.5% in April. This gap has grown to 42.5% Democratic and 32% Republican—10.5 points. Two years ago, when the Democrats contested for and lost this seat, Democrats had an advantage in registration of 41.5% to 34.5% There is a hotly contested Democratic primary race and the winner should be well positioned for a pickup in November.

In the 80th Assembly District in Imperial and Riverside Counties, a seat narrowly held by Republican Bonnie Garcia, Democrats surged to a double digit lead in registration, 46.3% to 36% over Republicans in April. Same story—Democratic percentage is up to 46.4% and Republican registration is down to 35.7%. Two years ago, when this was the last seat decided in a razor sharp race, the Democrats had one-tenth of a percentage better registration: 46.5%--but look at the Republican numbers was at 36.8%. Republicans have dropped over a full percent, enough to shift this election. There is a four way race for the Democratic nomination in this coveted seat.

Notice another trend in play from prior elections and polls results: The state’s “Decline to state” voters, also referred to as “independents” identify more with the Democratic Party and break Democratic. Also, as noted by the Field Poll and others, while usually Republicans turn out to vote in a higher proportion than their registration figures—or conversely Democrats do not vote as high as their percentage—in February’s primary, there was no drop off in the Democratic vote and their performance was equal to their registration percentages.

Credit eight years of George Bush and the rightward trend of the California Republican Party and its candidates for what will be a banner year in November for California Democrats.

We’ll expect some analysis of the Congressional numbers. I’m sure I’ve missed some state legislative races and will be glad to hear about these other seats that are now in play.

In the meanwhile, vote in Tuesday’s primary election so we will have strong candidates for November and on the important local races and ballot propositions that will be decided. Then we’ll focus on November—from the top of the ticket to the bottom.