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Mark Leno Sure Looks Like California Senate Winner Over Migden and Nation in SurveyUSA Poll

By Frank D. Russo

Just look at the headline and first paragraph of a KPIX-TV commissioned poll through SurveyUSA:

“California State Senate District 3: Carole Migden Defeated 2:1 in Primary Challenge -- In a Democratic Primary today in California's 3rd State Senate District, 18 days until votes are counted, incumbent Senator Carole Migden is defeated in her bid to keep her party's nomination… Mark Leno, assemblyman from California's 13th assembly district, gets 42% of the vote; Joe Nation, former assemblyman from CA's 6th district, gets 22%; Migden finishes effectively tied with Nation, at 21%. Leno leads in almost every demographic sub-population.”

It doesn’t get any better for Migden or Nation throughout this survey—in favorable-unfavorable ratings and the results by various subgroups to the extent the poll is accurate as to the smaller samples of those in the subgroups. Overall, this survey of 1000 voters out of which 516 were determined to have already voted or to be likely voters, has a margin of error of 3.2% as to the favorable/unfavorable ratings and 4.4% as to who voters would vote for. The poll is fresh—from last Tuesday May 13 to Wednesday May 14. It was released Thursday.

Leno has by far the best favorability rating—34% to 16% overall and a whopping 48% to 10% favorable rating amongst those who the survey determined had already voted and a 44% to 11% favorability advantage with those who are likely voters.

Nation has a 23% to 15% favorability rating and this is 35% to 24% with those already voted and 23% to 15% with those who are deemed likely to vote.

Migden has a 34% to 17% unfavorable rating and her negatives with those who have already voteed—38% to 25%--and likely voters—33% to 20% parallel this.

Nation has a narrow lead amongst conservatives 41% to 37% over Leno, get beaten by Leno 37% to 30% by moderate voters, and is trounced by liberal voters (the bulk of the Democratic primary vote in this district) with 47% to 17% voting for Leno. Migden badly trails Leno in all of these categories. Leno even wins the women’s vote 35% to 25% in this survey.

The results here show Leno pulling away compared with a poll in March by David Binder that we reported on showing Nation leading Leno within the margin of error, 27% to 24% in a more crowded field. Since then, a fourth candidate, Joe Alioto Veronese who was polling at 7% has dropped out and endorsed Leno. Binder’s poll also showed Migden badly trailing at 17% of the vote. Leno has since then picked up the coveted endorsement of Marin and Sonoma county Congressmember Lynn Woolsey, who trounced Nation two-to-one when he challenged her in the Democratic primary two years ago.

There will be plenty of independent expenditure money spent in this race—one of the hottest primary races in California. Turnout will be key. But for now it looks like Leno, Nation, and Migden—in that order. Whoever wins the primary here is a shoe in for 4 to 8 years in this heavy Democratic and progressive district. For a while, it looked like progressives would split their vote and the more moderate or conservative Nation would be competitive. But as the voters are voting and deciding, Leno is trending upwards.

Posted on May 17, 2008

Comments

Thanks for the updated polling info on the Leno-Migden(-Nation) primary race.

Posted by: Mad Professah at May 20, 2008 10:14 AM

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