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Field Poll Shows Huge Swing in California Towards Obama—He Would Win Handily Over Clinton If Primary Were Held Today and They Both Trounce McCain

By Frank D. Russo

The California Field Poll has released late last night their latest survey showing that there has been a 21 point swing towards Obama since the February 5 primary and away from Hillary Clinton. Field shows Both Democratic candidates with a 17% advantage over John McCain in California. Obama has the highest favorable ratings by far of any candidate, especially with the state’s important non-partisan/other voters.

Don’t worry about California. All the signs are here for a big—I mean big Democratic year from the top of the ticket to local races. Democratic registration is up, compared with Republican registration, in every one of California’s 80 Assembly Districts—and that’s the trend since the February 5, 2008 presidential primary. Not only is Democratic registration up, Democrats are voting and turning out at the polls. And on top of that, voters who are in neither party, agree with Democratic positions and candidates in both Field’s polling and that of the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC), which released their own survey earlier this month.

Both Field and the PPIC polls buttress each other in many ways.

Hillary Clinton won California by 8 points in February. Field shows that Obama would best her, amongst registered voters who are Democrats or are Democratically affiliated independents, if the election were held today, by a margin of 51% to 38%--13 points. This represents a dramatic swing of 21% in the intervening 3 ½ months.

Obama is the preferred candidate with these voters over Clinton, including a number of demographic groups that she has had long standing advantages with—and that she and her supporters have ballyhooed about. Obama is preferred by 49% of women voters over 41% for Clinton, and he would win North and South, with voters in all categories below age 64, all racial or ethnic groups except Latinos, all levels of education except those who are high school grads or less, and all income levels except those with a household income less than $40,000.

Lest some think that Hillary Clinton’s advantage between the two of them with the 65 year old and up crowd, Latinos, the high school or less and $40,000 or less of household income voters, when you look at the numbers both beat John McCain by the same margin—17%. Obama beats McCain 52% to 35% and Clinton beats McCain 53% to 36%--the highest or near to the highest margin for both of them with likely voters. Either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama would be an asset to the other as a Vice Presidential pick in the eyes of these voters.

Here are some other interesting numbers in this poll. Within the Democratic registrants or those non-partisans affiliated with Democrats, there is a much higher satisfaction with the way that Obama has won his campaign (82% to 15%) versus the way that Clinton has run her campaign (60% to 38%), but both are positive with this group.

With all likely voters in November, Obama has a 62% favorable to 29% unfavorable rating. Clinton has a 49% to 44% favorable rating. John McCain is statistically tied at 46% favorable to 45% unfavorable. Obama has the highest favorable marks with Democrats—78%--to Clinton’s 68%. He even has a 35% favorable rating amongst Republicans versus Clinton’s 24%. But perhaps the most significant statistic here is his astounding 72%-19% favorability with non-partisan/others compared with 48%-43% for Clinton, and a net negative 42%-48% for McCain.

These favorability ratings are in line with the PPIC survey—which also showed Obama winning by 17% over McCain and Clinton winning by 12%.

Translation: Obama is in a much better position to pick up independents and those registered with other parties. If, as expected, both the Democratic and Republican votes have a tendency to come home as the election approaches, this is significant. Not only do Democrats hold higher than 10% edge in registration over Republicans, with the non Republican vote going Democratic, this could result in a landslide in the Golden State. Even with the lingering resentment found in the heat of the battle, such as it is today, both Democrats lead by 17%--and that ain’t bad.

Field’s poll was taken of 914 Californians identified as likely to vote and 478 Democratic primary voters. It has a margin of error of 3.45 for November voters and 4.6% for primary voters. It was taken between May 16 and 27. The PPIC poll is of a larger sample with a slightly lower margin of error and was taken a bit earlier, between May 12 to 18. Each of these has some missing pieces that reinforce the other’s conclusions.

Mark DiCamillo, Director of the Field Poll interprets the results as follows: "I think voters here and elsewhere have been viewing the events of the last two or three months as the nomination battle has unfolded, and Californians are coming to the conclusion that Obama is the delegate winner. They seem to be satisfied with backing Obama as the nominee."

California has the largest number of Electoral College votes--53 of the 270 needed to win--or 19.6% of that magic number.

Posted on May 30, 2008

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