Field Poll Predicts California Voters Will Reject Landlord Backed Prop 98 But May Pass Rival Prop 99 on Eminent Domain

PPIC identified that Proposition 98’s inclusion of a prohibition of rent control and other tenant protections is unpopular with the voters. They found that both renters and homeowners favor keeping California law where it is on this question.

Prop 98 is opposed by every major environmental group in California and has been editorialized against by at least 64 newspapers in the state, virtually all the major and minor press who publish here. Voters narrowly, by a 52% to 48% margin, defeated Proposition 90 on the last California ballot dealing with eminent domain. This one will go down by a much greater margin.

Why Proposition 99 is Likely to Pass

Key findings as to Prop 99 include the mirror image of Prop 98. It is favored by more votes who are voting by mail and those who are aware of its provisions. The 50% to 29% margin it is passing by with VBM voters, many of whom have already cast their ballots, means that it should be comfortably ahead in the early vote counted. It is also passing by those who are predicted to show up at the polls on Election Day by a healthy 46% to 31% margin. The more voters know about Prop 99, the more they like it—as it is passing 51% to 30% amongst those who had prior awareness of it and by a narrower 40% to 31% with those who had not heard of it until Field popped the questions on them. As mentioned earlier, Field’s data indicates the group of those who have heard of Prop 99, are about 75% of the voters.

Prop 90 is passing in all demographic and subgroups identified by Field. It passes overwhelmingly with Democrats and non-partisan others, and by 44% to 36% with the state’s Republicans. It is far ahead with middle of the road and liberal voters and is ahead with conservative voters by 42% to 38%. And it is passing by large margins with both homeowners and renters.

Prop 99 deals with the eminent domain issue and will protect homeowners, but without the overreaching for dismantling of rent control and other parts of California law. It bars the use of eminent domain to acquire an owner-occupied residence for conveyance to a private person or business entity.

Conclusion

It’s not over until the fat lady sings after the polls close and the votes are counted. But Field’s polling, conducted between May 17 and May 26 point to Prop 98 losing by a large margin and Prop 99 passing by a more narrow margin. The poll surveyed 660 likely voters with a margin of error of 4.1%. Both Field and PPIC, California’s most trusted and reliable polls show the same results. Barring a dramatic change of Election Day voters or those casting ballots late by mail these are the results. But don’t count on it—get out and vote on these ballot propositions and the other important races on your local ballot.