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Democratic Party Outlook: West Virginia And Beyond
By Steve Cummings
Member
Ventura County Democratic Central Committee
In the endless battle for the Democratic Party nomination, the developments of the last 10 days offer a stark contrast that the Democratic Party faces as it comes to the end of the primaries and begins the final phase of the nominating process ending in Denver in August. Much has been written about the Clinton and Obama campaigns, with everyone minutely dissecting every campaign statement, poll, and primary result; whether the two campaigns help or hurt the party, whether the process is fair or even makes any sense. But what has been lost in all this discourse is what is actually going on here and where it is supposed to lead.
First of all, it is important to realize that the series of Democratic primaries and caucuses that have been going on since January (1) are not a popularity contest and (2) are not an election. You don’t become President by winning the popular vote. Ask Al Gore. And no one has been elected to anything yet; that’s in November. What has been going on has been a process by which the Democratic Party will nominate a candidate for the November election. Also, just because you win the most delegates or most votes during the process doesn’t mean you get the convention’s nomination. (For brief re-cap of how a dark-horse candidate got the Democratic nomination in 1924, see Chapter 6 of my new book, cited below). The name of the game is to win the presidential election in November, not to make the candidate’s supporters feel happy.
This topic leads to an interesting web site—Election 2008, or www.electoral-vote.com. This site projects the electoral vote for Clinton-McCain and Obama-McCain. Now of course, in looking at such polls, one must issue the usual caveat on such things. It is also important to note that these numbers jump around wildly with each new poll and that there are several political lifetimes between now and the convention in August, not to mention November. Having said that, the results on May 24 show an electoral vote of Clinton 314, McCain 207 with 17 ties and Obama 266, McCain 248, with 24 ties. The difference lies in a cluster of swing states including Florida, West Virginia, North Carolina and Missouri, which show Clinton winning and Obama losing. Ohio, which was in the same category, just flipped for Obama. These states, along with Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan, Colorado and a couple of others form the swing states in which this election will be decided.
But the maps also show that while Obama is weaker in the swing states, he is more competitive than Clinton in a number of red states. Clinton’s reputation as a polarizing candidate is graphically shown in the Clinton-McCain map where few states are in play. The question that ultimately must be decided by the delegates in Denver is not which of the anointed two is the better candidate, but how do the Democrats win in swing states and other winnable red states to get the magic 270 electoral votes.
The Clinton camp argues that Hillary Clinton is the better choice by virtue of the polls. But there is also no doubt that the weaknesses Clinton showed in trailing Obama in delegates and the concern that she would polarize the GOP into action and damage down-ticket candidates, is a major factor. Likewise, despite the remarkable campaign that Obama has put together, polls and results from states like West Virginia are also a concern, particularly in the swing states (although the move in Ohio is encouraging).
This is the scenario that confronts the delegates as they head for Denver. They could get lucky. The endorsement of John Edwards could give Obama the boost he needs among middle-class white voters to allow the delegates to reach a consensus nomination. Or, focusing attacks on John McCain rather than each other may lift the fortunes and projected electoral votes for both candidates. But if things stay the way they are, we have the prospect of the leading candidate Barack Obama projecting out with a lower electoral vote than either Clinton or McCain. Do the delegates go with the leader and hope he catches up in the swing states? Do they go with the runner-up whose numbers appear better right now, but who candidacy also presents serious liabilities for the fall campaign? Or do they hedge their bets completely and, like 1924, ask Al Gore to be the nominee? In the final analysis, there is no such thing as a pledged delegate at the Denver convention, and events may occur which will produce a nominee that is on no-one’s radar. There is still much political theater to be played out.
Steve Cummings is a member of the Ventura County Democratic Central Committee, Controller for CDC, and the Southern VP for the California Federation of Democratic Central Committee Members. His book, Red States, Blue States, and the Coming Sharecropper Society, was published by Algora Publishing, NY in April.
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