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Cavala: Field Poll Provides a Few “What If’s”--And a Daunting Challenge to the G.O.P.
By Bill Cavala
A veteran of over 30 years in Sacramento
So, ‘what if’, the California primary election had not been the subject of political meddling this year? California moved the presidential portion of its primary into February to have more of an impact on the process. (Or was it to allow California politicians the ability to ingratiate themselves to the probable nominee, Hillary Clinton?)
Clinton won that February event – to no avail. Had the primary date been left for June 3rd, the latest Field Poll shows that Barrack Obama would trounce Hillary Clinton 51-38 and would be the uncontested nominee of the Democratic Party for President.
This would have provided Democratic politicians with the opportunity to ingratiate themselves to President Obama. So much for foresight.
The Field Poll also finds that Obama will kill McCain in California – bringing the accuracy of the Los Angeles Times poll, which showed a more narrow Obama win, into question in yet another election. (Is the Times pollster a relative of the editor?)
More importantly, all of the polls show that voters learn during the course of a campaign and that they are willing to apply what they learn. They change their minds in the light of new information. It’s what makes managing a political campaign so much fun.
Smart politicians learn from the voters. Field asked them (voters) whether they wanted the “dream” ticket. Would Hillary’s supporters be more likely to support Barrack if she was on the ticket and vice-versa? Between 87% and 92% said they’d be more likely to support the ticket, or that it would make no difference, if the two were paired.
Obviously, they should be paired. The first duty of the Vice-Presidential candidate is to help elect the ticket. In California, at least, that means our nominee should choose his (or her) beaten rival as the number two. Silly talk about incompatibility isn’t taken seriously by those who matter. Only 13% of the Democrats are less likely to support an Obama/Clinton ticket. And that’s today, with three primary elections and a rules committee fight to go.
Meanwhile, John McCain has a 68-22 favorable/unfavorable ratio among Republicans. 35% of the Republicans give Obama a favorable rating. That’s not good for Republicans. Among voters registered outside the two major parties, McCain compares his 42/48 ratio with Obama’s 72/19. Obama is liked today by 78% of the Democrats.
Could this change? Yes, it could. Voters do learn from campaigns. But here’s McCain’s problem.
First, he wants to teach us why we’re wrong to think Iraq was a huge and costly mistake on the part of the U.S. (That makes him appear both stupid and stubborn).
Second, McCain supports the G.O.P. economic policies. Americans don’t.
Third, as a mesmerizing speaker McCain is a challenger for the Bob Dole award.
And finally, what is he going to do about the President?
Bill Cavala was Deputy Director of the Assembly Speaker’s Office of Member Services where he worked for over 30 years.
He attended undergraduate and graduate school in the 1960’s and received a doctorate in political science at UC Berkeley. He taught political science at UC Berkeley during the 1970's while he worked part-time for the State Assembly.
Cavala left teaching at UC Berkeley and went to work for Assembly Speaker Willie Brown in 1981 until his tenure as Speaker ended in 1995, and he has worked for his five successors as Speaker up to and including Speaker Fabian Nunez.
Mr. Cavala manages election campaigns for Democratic candidates.
Comments
Comrade Cavala,
Once again using leftist polls to bolster your point...
But you never mentuioned the CAUSE of your "what if" which is how Perata and Nunez moved the primary from June to February for their own personal gain, the possible passing of Proposition 93 which had it passed would have extended these termed out frequents to the public trough...
Thank goodness the voters didn't fall for that slick move.
Point of note, you said above, "The Field Poll also finds that Obama will kill McCain in California..."
Would you have said the names the other way around? Specifically you use of the word "kill"?
Perhaps you are a Hillary backer after all...
Posted by: Jay Gould at May 31, 2008 09:07 AM
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