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California Public Support for Taxes Declines in Context of Recession

towashington 089.gif By Bill Cavala
A veteran of over 30 years in Sacramento

Bad news for California’s budget came in from the precincts today. The latest PPIC survey indicates that (1) voters don’t want to cut education’s budget; and (2) don’t want to raise taxes to avoid those cuts. Years of budget flim-flam – led by Governor flim-flam – have convinced voters we can simply ‘reorder’ priorities and get by.

I suppose we shouldn’t be too hard on the Governor. After all, he floated into office because of Gray Davis’ failure to fix budget problems earlier in this decade. Naturally he’ll be trying to avoid a similar fate by placing the blame on the Legislature.

For weeks now the Governor has been making appearances touting his rebaked version of Pete Wilson’s “solution” to budget woes (cut out the Legislature). But the day of real reckoning approaches.

Democrats, who have called for revenue increases, can raise about $2.5 billion in ‘fee increases’ that don’t require GOP backing because they are majority vote bills. Then we can lease or sell the lottery, the capitol, and anything else to raise money – and still have a multi-billion dollar problem.

Democratic interest groups have argued that problem can be solved through higher taxes – and have hoped that Republican lawmakers would be pushed by a combination of the Governor and public opinion into moving in that direction.

Today’s survey results make that less likely. When “likely voters” were asked about paying higher taxes to avoid school cuts, they rejected it by a 45-52 margin. A sales tax increase loses by even a larger margin (38-63). Republican voters – who play a large role in Republican primary elections – reject the ‘tax’ solution 2-1.

It’s an indication that if Republican lawmakers were somehow persuaded to put a tax hike on the ballot (as Pete Wilson did in 1993), it is a probable loser.

With many of the gimmicks used to ‘balance’ budgets in previous short-fall years no longer available, and with a cash-flow problem that will crest this summer, things look bleak indeed for the new leaders of the Legislature. And they deal with these problems starting with a ‘favorable’ rating by the public of 22%.

In ancient Athens, public officials weren’t subject to ‘election’. They were put on trial after their term in office. The assembled public then passed one of three sentences: “honors” (rarely bestowed); “exile” (the average sentence); or “death”.

Options like these restrained ambition to the point where officials were chosen by lottery.

This year’s budget may visit the feelings of those ancient leaders on Pro Tem Steinberg and Speaker Bass.

Bill Cavala was Deputy Director of the Assembly Speaker’s Office of Member Services where he worked for over 30 years.

He attended undergraduate and graduate school in the 1960’s and received a doctorate in political science at UC Berkeley. He taught political science at UC Berkeley during the 1970's while he worked part-time for the State Assembly.

Cavala left teaching at UC Berkeley and went to work for Assembly Speaker Willie Brown in 1981 until his tenure as Speaker ended in 1995, and he has worked for his five successors as Speaker up to and including Speaker Fabian Nunez.

Mr. Cavala manages election campaigns for Democratic candidates.

Posted on May 01, 2008

Comments

OK, so you've got a $20 Billion deficit and your "smoke and mirrors" game can only cover about 10% of it this time. NOBODY agrees with you that taxes should be raised. So, c'mon now. I know you can get this if you really try: "What alternative do you have left?"

Hint: It rhymes with "REDUCE SPENDING".

Posted by: Gary at May 1, 2008 01:42 PM

Comrade Cavala,

I actually agree with some of what you say here. However, I would be inconsistant if I didn't find some issues to challenge you on.

The poll you quote shows a marked difference in what the VOTERS want (no new or increased taxes) verses what democratic politicians want (new and increased taxes including "fees").

The republicans "get that". Why can't democrats?

You say:

"I suppose we shouldn’t be too hard on the Governor. After all, he floated into office because of Gray Davis’ failure to fix budget problems earlier in this decade. Naturally he’ll be trying to avoid a similar fate by placing the blame on the Legislature."

Of corse the legislature deserves a (large) portion of any budgetary blame. They PASS BUDGETS. And democrats CHAIR ALL THE COMMITTEES that have a budgetary aspect. Nice try distancing the party from their responsibilities...

"For weeks now the Governor has been making appearances touting his rebaked version of Pete Wilson’s “solution” to budget woes (cut out the Legislature). But the day of real reckoning approaches."

Of course to "cut out the legislature" is a possibility to move forward when at a dead stop. (Didn't you just say above they would be "blamed" for this and now you are mad that they may be cut out of the process? Their RESPONSIBILITY? Typical liberal everyone else is at fault but us thinking YET that they should be "in control" yet again have NONE OF THE RESPONSIBILITY. Incredulous!!!)

Recall the movement to CUT legislators pay (of any party mind you) due to their non-performance and as a tool to balance the budget that they refuse to do? Also recall Perata's wanting just enough legislators to stay in town over a 4 day weekend to comprise a "quorum" so ALL LEGISLATORS could still then receive their $179 per day tax deferred per diem allotment?

I would bypass the legislature too with demonstrated fiscal responsibility such as that!

Enjoyed the "ancient Athens analogy" Funny, if you guys don't want to drill for oil, build nuclear powerplants, etc., we will have an ancient Athens like infrastructure too...

I look forward to your response Comrade!

Posted by: Jay Gould at May 1, 2008 01:55 PM

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