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California Prop 98 Heading for Rejection by Voters—Rival Prop 99 Has Narrow 8 Point Lead
By Frank D. Russo
Consistent with all that has been the scuttlebutt amongst the private polls, the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) has just released a poll that shows that Prop 89—the eminent domain constitutional amendment being bankrolled by landlords—is already behind with only 30% of likely voters supporting it and 48% opposed.
As is true with just about all ballot measures, once they fall behind, the skids are greased and the final results do not reverse when the votes are counted. This is especially true with the substantial numbers of Californians casting vote by mail ballots—and a large number of these votes may already be in the bank. A full 22% are undecided, and if history is any guide, most of these votes will gravitate to the “no” side as it is easier to cast doubts on a ballot measure than to pass one with an electorate who is not fully onboard early on.
Prop 98 goes down hard with Democrats who are likely to vote by 58% to 20%. It also is rejected by Independents 48% to 32%. It has a narrow plurality with Republicans 41% to 36% with 20% of Republicans likely to vote undecided. I trails in all regions of the state and loses by a wide margin in the votes of those who are homeowners and renters alike.
There are many questions about Prop 98, but clearly one of the reasons for its unpopularity is its prohibition of rent control and similar measures. The PPIC results to this question speak volumes on this part of Prop 98: “Do you think rent control—that is, the ability of local governments to set limits on how much rents can be increased each year—is a good thing or a bad thing?” By 54% to 38% likely California voters think rent control is a good thing. This includes an overwhelming majority of Democrats (66% to 26%) and Independents (51% to 42%). Republicans do not think rent control is a good idea by 53% to 39%.
Even a majority of homeowners (51% to 41%) think rent control is a good idea. Renters by a 63% to 29% think so as well.
Proposition 99
Prop 99--a rival eminent domain measure that does not have these rent control prohibitions-- is ahead in this poll by 44% to 36% with likely voters and 20% with no opinion.
It leads with Democrats and Independents by wide margins and even amongst Republican likely voters 42% to 37%. It leads comfortably in all regions of the state except the Central Valley where it is ahead 41% to 39%--just within the margin of error of the poll. It is winning with homeowners and renters.
Without a clear majority of voters in favor of Prop 99, its fate is uncertain. It may be decided by those who vote on Election Day and could lose if those ballots break negatively.
Voters Want Changes in Eminent Domain Laws in California
71% of likely voters want changes in California’s eminent domain laws while 17% say the laws are fine the way they are written. Another 12% doesn’t know. The leader here is 39% who want “major” changes. Another 32% want “minor changes.” The results are pretty consistent with Democrats, Republicans, and Independents as well as homeowners and renters.
About This Poll
The Public Policy Institute of California is a non-partisan, non profit organization that surveyed 2003 California adults in which they identified 1086 likely voters. This is a large sample and the margin of error for likely voters is 3%. It was conducted May 12 to May 18.
Comments
Having fought Santa Monica's rent control back in the 80, its a subject with which I'm somewhat familiar. My question is, since the courts have already held that rent control is not eminent domain, doesn't that violate the single issue requirement of a proposition?
Posted by: Will Tracy at May 22, 2008 08:52 AM
It's always seemed to me that 98 clearly violates the multiple issue prohibition. There is no connection between rent control and ED, except in the fantasies of its proponents, who think everything government does is 'takings.'
But remember-- ultimately it's up to the Cal. Supreme Court to decide, and they are very ideologically Republican. There are many conservatives who have strong emotional feelings about things like rent control-- so it's better 98 loses outright rather than at the pleasure of this court.
Posted by: Jim Carlile at May 27, 2008 07:20 PM
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