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The Connection in California Between Sprawl and Mortgage Foreclosures

Robert-Cruickshank.gifBy Robert Cruickshank

Yesterday morning NPR ran this report on housing prices:

“Economists say home prices are nowhere near hitting bottom. But even in regions that have taken a beating, some neighborhoods remain practically unscathed. And a pattern is emerging as to which neighborhoods those are.

“The ones with short commutes are faring better than places with long drives into the city. Some analysts see a pause in what has long been inexorable - urban sprawl.”

This is a predictable fact of soaring gas prices. Older city centers have more commute options, and usually shorter commutes period, meaning less gas consumption. This eliminates a key source of pressure on household incomes.

In fact, we can see a similar pattern here in California. The areas hardest hit by foreclosures are those places with the longest commutes - Stockton, Modesto, the SoCal Inland Empire. And when did the housing bubble begin to burst? Late 2006 and early 2007, as gas prices broke through the $3 barrier for good.

This view is bolstered by a new study and widget from the Center for Neighborhood Technology. It shows that once you factor in transportation costs, living in a city center is just as, if not more affordable, for a middle-class family than a suburb - at least in Seattle (a typical West Coast city with sky-high rents and home prices in the city center).

All of this reinforces the point I made last August in Redefining the California Dream, where I argued that the only way lower- and middle-income Californians will have economic security and be able to afford the cost of living is if we abandon the obsolete 20th century model of sprawl and embrace the 21st century model of elegant density.

It would help, of course, if folks like Zev Yaroslavsky would stop spending their time trying to prevent this necessary shift in living patterns. We need to bolster affordable housing policies, provide mass transit alternative, and zone for walkable communities if we are to avoid a situation where we merely exchange the inner city slum for a suburban slum.

Robert Cruickshank is a historian, activist, and teacher living in Monterey. He is a contributing editor at Calitics.com and works for the Courage Campaign, in addition to teaching political science at Monterey Peninsula College. Currently he is completing his Ph.D. dissertation in US history, on progressive politics in San Francisco in the 1960s and 1970s. A native Californian, he was raised in Orange County and educated at UC Berkeley.

Posted on April 23, 2008

Comments

Democrats and greenies still have the same old solution to sprawl that doesn't work: Urban Density.

Sure, it'll stall the problem for a little while at the expense of quality of life until the population increases jsut a little more. And let's not for get that every person requires a lot of land for farms, water treatment, power generation, etc whether he lives in a high-rise or a subdivision.

We all need to get it through our heads that a rising population is the source of all of our sprawl and environmental woes.

And msot of that population increase some from out of control legal and most especially illegal immigration and their children born here. I'm all for having some legal immigration, but only a little to fill key jobs that employers would have to prove they could not fill with local talent and then pay the immigrant the same wage they offered the locals.

The other solution is requiring cities to set permanent borders and greenbelts and preserving farmland through zoning. Ideally, as many people as possible should live on farmable 5 to 10 acre lots and telecommute to work. That would preserve the American dream, farmland and the environment.

-An Anti-sprawl Republican

Posted by: John at April 24, 2008 10:04 AM

Democrats and greenies still have the same old solution to sprawl that doesn't work: Urban Density while welcoming in floods of illegal immigrants. It's hypocritical and counter-productive to their own causes.

Sure, density will stall the problem for a little while at the expense of quality of life until the population increases just a little more. And let's not forget that every person requires a lot of land for farms, water treatment, power generation, etc whether he lives in a high-rise or a subdivision.

We all need to get it through our heads that a rising population is the source of all of our sprawl and environmental woes.

And most of that population increase comes from out of control legal and most especially illegal immigration and their children born here. I'm all for having some legal immigration, but only a little to fill key jobs that employers would have to prove they could not fill with local talent and then pay the immigrant the same wage they offered the locals.

The other solution is requiring cities to set permanent borders and greenbelts and preserving farmland through zoning. Ideally, as many people as possible should live on farmable 5 to 10 acre lots and telecommute to work. That would preserve the American dream, farmland and the environment.

-An Anti-sprawl Republican

Posted by: John at April 24, 2008 10:08 AM

Thanks for the excellent article, separate from the subprime mortgage crisis escalating gas prices are redducing the marketability of homes entailing long commutes. This is ne more reason to make our central cities more desireable and affordable along with many others: avoiding the paving of precious agricultural land, slowing global warming, and the cultual desolation of many suburbs.

Posted by: Doug T. at April 24, 2008 12:00 PM

This is the same posting as my prior one but with the typos corrected.
Thanks for the excellent article. Separate from the subprime mortgage crisis, escalating gas prices are reducing the marketability of homes entailing long commutes. This is one more reason to make our central cities more desirable and affordable along with many others: avoiding the paving of precious agricultural land, slowing global warming, and the cultual desolation of many suburbs.

Posted by: Doug T. at April 24, 2008 12:13 PM

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