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Frank D. Russo

The California Progress Report is published by Frank D. Russo, a longtime observer of and participant in California politics.

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Good News for California Democrats in Latest Voter Registration Figures—Pickups in Key Districts Now in Sight

frankrusso-small.jpg By Frank D. Russo

The California Secretary of State issued an update of voter registration figures late yesterday that bode very well for Democratic gains in the November election and show the state is turning even more Democratic from the level of the State Assembly to the Presidential race. There’s an increase in the overall percentage of Californians registered to vote and the trend goes one way—blue.

In January, at the close of registration just before the February 5, 2008 Presidential Primary, California Democrats had a 10 point advantage over Republicans, 43% to 33%. This has now increased to a 10.7% margin as Democrats picked up their percentage of registrants and are now 43.5% compared with Republicans who dropped to 32.8%.

This shows that even after the Presidential Primary, which has seen tremendous enthusiasm and growth in the Democratic Party, not only here in California but across the nation, there is a clear trend favoring the Democrats. It isn’t just the presidential race that is driving these numbers.

But even more significantly, there are gains in key state legislative districts where past elections have been close.

In Senate District 12, where a recall of Republican Jeff Denham is on the ballot in June, Democratic registration has increased to 46.1% to 34.9% over Republicans. In January, Democrats had a 45.7% to 36% edge and the Republican share has decreased. Democrats have increased their totals in this key district by over 8,700 whereas Republicans have 530 less voters than they had 3 short months ago.

And Democrats are in much better shape in Assembly Districts 15, 78, and 80, among others. These are three districts where Republicans won by thin margins and where the Democrats are poised for a shift.

In Assembly District 15, centered in Contra Costa County, where Republican Guy Houston is term limited out, where Republican registration outstripped Democratic registration as late as January, Democrats are now ahead by 39.3% to 38.3% and have picked up over half a percent whereas Republicans have dropped by half a point. Democrat Joan Buchanan is a strong candidate for this open seat.

In Assembly District 78 in San Diego where Republican Shirley Horton is termed out, Democrats are ahead in registration by 42.1% to 32.5%, where the same trend applies with Democrats up in percentages and Republicans down. There are many strong Democratic candidates running in the primary.

In the 80th Assembly District in Imperial and Riverside Counties, a seat narrowly held by Republican Bonnie Garcia, Democrats now hold a double digit lead in registration, 46.3% to 36% over Republicans. Same story—Democratic percentage is up and Republican is down.

And Democrats are closing the gap in Senate District 19, Santa Barbara and environs, currently held by arch conservative Republican Tom McClintock. Hannah-Beth Jackson, who represented parts of the district in the California Assembly, is making a bid for what some are calling the 27th Senate seat for the Democrats (assuming a pick up in the Denham recall)—an important number because that is what is needed to pass a state budget and other important legislation. While Democrats still trail in this district, they have increased their registration and many of the district’s “decline to state” voters vote with the Democratic Party. Jackson is polling well in this important race which is expected to be close.

Secretary of State Debra Bowen said in releasing these statistics, “Clearly, people are very excited as we head toward the historic November presidential election. I hope that enthusiasm will translate into a high voter turnout in the June 3 Statewide Direct Primary, when Californians will choose the party nominees for Congress, the state Assembly, and the State Senate.”

Notice another trend in play from prior elections and polls results: The state’s “Decline to state” voters, also referred to as “independents” identify more with the Democratic Party and break Democratic. Also, as noted by the Field Poll and others, while usually Republicans turn out to vote in a higher proportion than their registration figures—or conversely Democrats do not vote as high as their percentage—in February’s primary, there was no drop off in the Democratic vote and their performance was equal to their registration percentages.

Credit eight years of George Bush and the rightward trend of the California Republican Party and its candidates for what will be a banner year in November for California Democrats. Expect this trend to continue.

The last day to register to vote in the June 3, 2008, Statewide Direct Primary Election is May 19. You may register online and should do so if you are not registered, have moved, or have recently become eligible to vote.

Sample ballots will be mailed out as early as next week and vote by mail ballots will be going out in early May. The June election is closer than you think with many Californians voting by mail. Then November will be just around corner.

Posted on April 19, 2008

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