Bursting the Water Bubble: California Gets Closer to Disclosing Water Reality

By Traci Sheehan
Executive Director
Planning and Conservation League

Just like the bursting of the housing bubble when the sub prime mortgage reality set in, the 2007 State Water Project Delivery Reliability Report signals a similar burst of California’s water bubble. The 2007 Draft Report reveals that the State Water Project (SWP) will deliver 20 to 30 percent less water to agricultural, commercial, and residential users than it had estimated in 2005. The draft report is the first to reflect more realistic water export levels, although it still masks the underlying problem that expectations for SWP water are still much higher than nature can accommodate.

The bi-annual reliability report is the product of a settlement agreement between PCL and the Department of Water Resources over our legal challenge to proposed amendments to the State Water Project contracts. This report is the basis of many major water plans across the state, as well as the foundation for water supply assessments required for new development.

In much the same way that irresponsible loan practices fueled unrealistic expectations in the housing market, previous reports, including the 2005 report, inflated predictions of Delta exports by ignoring the mounting problems in the Delta and the impacts of climate change on California’s hydrology. As a result, water managers, cities, and counties have falsely assumed the SWP can deliver more water than it actually can.

Despite the importance of the report, there are no mechanisms in place to ensure the accuracy of the reports’ projections. As PCL noted in recent comments, the 2007 report still fails to account for many of the impacts of climate change and continues to overestimate feasible water exports from the Delta.

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