Only 128 Days to June California Primary—With At Least 34 Open Legislative Seats in Wake of Term Limit Change Defeat

Filing for Assembly and State Senate seats opens Monday!

By Frank D. Russo

With the defeat of Proposition 93 on term limits, at least 24 of California’s 80 Assembly seats and 10 of 40 Senate seats will have new occupants—and many of these races will be decided in the June 3, 2008 primary that is 128 days down the road.

Haven’t caught your breath from yesterday’s Super Tuesday presidential primary where the votes are still being counted? Filing for this next round—more important now in filling the state legislature begins Monday and closes March 7 for all of these 34 races.

Candidates have already been busy for months raising substantial money and planning for the June election in the anticipation that term limit changes would fail on yesterday’s ballot. Now it will be official and as soon as we will begin covering these races.

Because most of these districts are strongly Democratic or Republican, nomination by the majority party in most of them will be tantamount to election in November.

Somewhat perversely---despite the fact that the June election here will be much more important in most, they will be decided by a relative handful of voters. Turnout is expected in most locales in California to be low in June since the presidential primary was separated from it and moved to February. Unless there are other compelling local races or matters on the June ballot, turnout may approach the lows associated with most special elections, with turnout percentages in the teens in many areas—unless—there is an organized drive to get voters to the polls to vote on the competing eminent domain ballot initiatives.

Eternal vigilance is the price of liberty. Low turnout elections are traditionally predominated by older, wealthier, home owning, voters with a more conservative bent than high turnout elections.

With these candidate races and state ballot initiatives, there is a lot at stake. Squirrely things can happen in low turnout elections.

Democrats—we have our work cut out for us. Back to the trenches.

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