Major Obama Surge in California: Just Released Field Poll Has It Too Close to Call

By Frank D. Russo

The prestigious California Field Poll, considered by many to be the gold standard in California, shows Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama 36% to 34% in the state with 18% of likely voters undecided, well within the margin of error of the poll. This is a dramatic change from the previous California Field Poll, conducted January 14 to 20, that had Clinton with a 12 point lead, 39% to 27%.

And it comes as the Los Angeles Times, the largest paper in California, endorses Obama in today’s Sunday paper, giving him 35 newspaper endorsements in the state. Equally significant is the endorsement yesterday of La Opinion, the largest Spanish language newspaper in the United States and the most read newspaper in Los Angeles after the Los Angeles Times. Obama has the endorsement of 10 of the11 most read newspapers in the state, with the exception of the San Diego Union which has not endorsed.

La Opinion’s endorsement was repeatedly featured in news segments on Spanish language radio and television throughout California Saturday.

The Field Poll also has Obama beating likely Republican nominee John McCain by a margin of 47% to40% in California, while Clinton wins a race against McCain by a narrower 45% to 43% in a November matchup.

A more detailed analysis of the Field Poll will follow shortly when it is released online. It is clear that California is up for grabs and the election will be decided by turnout on Election Day as well as turning in of many vote by mail ballots in counties where the voter is registered at polling locations or the registrar of voters offices. A big turnout by younger voters could tip California Obama’s way.

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