Field Poll: Prop 93 on Term Limits Losing Badly as California Voters Approach the Plate

One pollster I talked to six months ago predicted voters would reject any changes to California term limits—if the opposition to it were funded to deliver a message. For a while, it did not appear that this would happen and money against Prop 93 largely came from out of state anti-government groups. Democratic lawmakers financed the yes side, along with the usual list of in state interest groups. It is an unfortunate fact that in all—or virtually all ballot proposition elections in California—large donations from institutions fund any side, pro or con, that has substantial money in the coffers to spend on advertising.

But Steve Poizner, the wealthy Republican Insurance Commissioner, who wants to run for Governor and needed something to endear him to conservatives within the party needed for the nomination, stepped up to the plate and put in over a million dollars of his own money and the no campaign has been adequately funded, although outspent two-to-one by supporters of Prop 93. The California Correctional Peace Officers Association (CCPOA) which had originally given to the yes side, switched with a fury and poured over $2 million into the no campaign, wanting to punish Democratic legislators for not being as supportive as they had expected in negotiations with the Schwarzenegger Administration.

It is generally much easier to defeat a ballot initiative than to pass one. A measure needs to start out far ahead, as with any doubts that an adequately funded campaign can wage against a measure, voters only need one reason to vote no.

The opposition campaign on this Prop has devolved into a personalized negative attack on the Democratic leadership in the legislature. Not terribly illuminating, but effective. Polls have shown that California voters have not had a clue as to who those leaders are—with single digits of voters being able to identify either the Assembly Speaker or the President pro Tem of the State Senate by name. While Californians like their own legislators, the institution as a whole polls much less favorably—especially after the impasse on last year’s state budget, held up by Republican Senators.

Dozens of State Assembly and Senate races will start up full bore Wednesday as the June primary for these offices is close at hand and filing deadlines are upon us. Expect the special interests to play heavily in these primary battles as turnout is likely to be low. This will alter the legislative process before then as lawmakers and candidates being a mad dash for offices. We’ll have a lot to report on this dynamic for months. The legislature will remain Democratic, but conservative business interests will try to push candidates in line their interests in the primary with mega bucks and that can have a major impact on the ability to pass legislation to protect the environment and traditional Democratic interests.

An article in today’s San Jose Mercury News by Steve Harmon, Term limits debate missing in Prop. 93 is well worth a read as to what a campaign on the merits of term limits and the proposed change, rather than the personal attack ads we have seen would have been like. Here are a few quotes:

“In the 17-plus years since voters approved legislative term limits, has the constant flow of new faces at the Capitol reinvigorated the Legislature with fresh ideas and energy?

“Or has the legislative branch been diminished by the loss of experience and the constant churning of lawmakers?

“It's a debate that's been quietly waged for years among academics and political insiders. But it's been strangely absent from the Proposition 93 campaign, even as voters are being asked to consider changing term limits.

Harmon concludes:

“An exhaustive 2004 study on term limits, by academics Bruce Cain and Thad Kousser, found that lawmakers' oversight of the executive branch has declined, the Legislature is less likely to make substantial changes to the governor's budget, and that frequent turnover - especially in the Assembly where typically one-third of the membership are freshmen every two years - has sharply reduced members' expertise on issues.”

But that hasn’t been the focus here and we will be paying for the results of the current system of term limits—the status quo—that has not improved matters for Californians. That’s the irony here—those who oppose Prop 93 and an attempt to modify term limits-- are supporting what we have now—the very system that they lambaste in their ads and vitriol.