California Republican Party Convention Shows Signs of McCain Problems in November

The Republican Party in this state has a $3 million loan from one wealthy individual, Larry Dodge—who extended the term for repayment, wanting a more moderate platform adopted this weekend, and signs that the Republicans would better manage the party and begin to register new voters and things that parties should do. Instead, from the platform meeting, delegates appeared to be defeating moderate proposals and in general session today, appear headed to adopt a right wing platform with anti-choice provisions on abortion, an anti-gun control plank, and other provisions that will not bring the party into the 21st Century in this state—and shouldn’t make Mr. Dodge too happy.

Even if Mr. Dodge forgave his loan, the party would have very little in the way of resources, and the comparison to the California Democratic Party which has around $5 million in the bank and virtually no debts, it telling.

Noticeably absent this weekend is Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, one of the few Republican successes in the state. What kind of a reception he’d get is a little unclear, as he has taken to admonishing the party that it “is dying at the box office” with California’s voters. And McCain wasn’t here either.

Bill Jones is the Chair of the California McCain campaign. He spoke to the McCain meeting and then met with the press. He is a very affable Republican who twice won statewide office as Secretary of State. He told the two or three hundred delegates packed into the rally room that “I’m thrilled that we have a candidate at the top of the ticket who’s committed to competing in California. So, we’re going to have our resources used here.” He promised the faithful that, “This state is going to be the Florida of 2008.” Whatever that means from a former Secretary of State—the ballots will be counted accurately here (notwithstanding Los Angeles and its bubble ballot problems) and the polls don’t look all that promising.

Jones tried to tell the press that McCain had issues to talk about, couldn’t really answer the question “How do you overcome Californians’ distaste for the war,” starting out his answer, “Well, no one likes war.” He couldn’t answer the question asked by a reporter about how McCain could win California with his position on abortion and given the fact that the only Republicans who had won the Governor’s race in decades were pro-choice. He said that McCain has been a “consistent pro-life vote” and that Californians would respect him for that position.

So it’s not surprising that Clinton leads McCain 58% to 35% and Obama leads by a 61% to 34% blowout according to a poll released Friday from Survey Research. Jones contended that McCain can win in all regions of the state and appeal to a united Republican base, along with some independents and even some Democrats. But the cross tabs in the Survey USA poll shows Obama getting a fifth of the Republican vote and having a 58-33% lead with independents. Obama also has an overwhelming lead amongst moderates 62-32% (they make up 43% of the California electorate), and liberals 78% to 18% (they make up 26% of the electorate), and even with conservatives, only 1% of the voters, he gets 28% to McCain’s 66%.

So, the Associated Press Reports “California a tough climb for any GOP nominee, even McCain.” The LA Times reports “For state GOP, November may be the cruelest month.”

Meanwhile, at the bumper strip display, there are a lot of anti-Hillary items for sale that are just plain offensive and obsessive, and aren’t going to win any votes.

And there are signs for arch-conservative Tom McClintock as “California’s Congressman”—apt because he lives and represents a State Senate district in Southern California a few hundred miles from his intended prize, the 4th Congressional District in and around Sacramento.