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The California Progress Report is published by Frank D. Russo, a longtime observer of and participant in California politics.

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Analysis of California Field Poll Showing Clinton-Obama Too Close to Call in Nation’s Biggest State

By Frank D. Russo

The California Field Poll released today shows the Democratic race within the margin of error of the poll with Hillary Clinton at 36% of likely voters and Barack Obama at 34% with 18% undecided and another 12% voting for other candidates. It documents what Field calls a “strong surge” for Obama since its last poll taken in mid January, just 9 to 12 days earlier. It has a margin of error of 4.5% and was taken between Friday January 25 and Friday February 1.

While many will have their hunches reading the tea leaves here as to who will win the California primary, this one is simply too close to call, and the race will be determined by those who actually turn out and vote. It is not just the margin of error of the poll here of static statistics, but a volatile and unpredictable electorate and the closeness of division in those who have already made up their minds. For those who have surmised that Obama may have a steep road to go up because of early vote by mail voters, consider this: Amongst all mail ballot voters who have or are expected to vote, the results are 32% Obama and 31% Clinton—hardly decisive at all.

The entire Field poll is now available online , runs to 9 pages, and is fascinating to review. It shows John McCain widening his lead over Mitt Romney to 8 points, 32% to 24%.

Field has been polling in California since 1947 and is widely respected, dubbed the “gold standard” by many political observers. They describe their findings as “Obama’s support has been increasing steadily, while support for Clinton has been relatively stagnant.” If anything, it appears that Clinton’s support actually dropped from 39% in the prior survey to the current 36%, but this is within the margin of error of the poll.

Field also had this longer than usual cautionary note at the end of the poll that sums up the uncertainty in the California race in the final days:

“[T]here are also unusually large proportions of voters – 18% in the Democratic primary and 15% in the Republican – who were undecided in the final days of the campaign. These voters had indicated in prior questions that they were highly likely to vote. Considering the many months of campaigning, extensive free media coverage, advertising, and recent televised debates, these voters have been exposed to considerable information about the candidates and appear to be in some real conflict as to whom to support. How these voters come to judgment will have a big bearing on the election outcome of both sides.

“There is another aspect to the Democratic primary findings that is unique and where there is not much precedence in previous presidential elections. It is the group of non-partisans who say they will vote in the Democratic primary. These voters have candidate preferences that counter those of registered Democrats. The relative size of each eventual voting bloc, therefore, will have a major impact on the outcome.”

Translation: This one is up for grabs. You have to get to the mid 40’s to win this one.

John Edwards dropped out of the race on Wednesday, January 30—more towards the end of the period that Field is measuring. The previous Field Poll showed that more of these Edwards voters than not would vote for Obama if Edwards dropped out. Many endorsements—including that of Ted Kennedy and California’s newspapers—campaigning in the state by the candidates and surrogates, and the debate between just the two remaining candidates took place before, during, and after respondents were surveyed.

Here is some of what Field found in subgroups, all of “likely voters." Bear in mind that the margin of error is a bit higher for these subgroups and all is subject to change:

Clinton led 37% to 31% amongst registered Democrats. Obama led 54% to 32% with those voters not registered with a party, who are permitted to vote in the Democratic primary in California. 87% of those voting in this contest are expected to be Democrats and 13% are from the decline-to-state or non-partisan vote.

Clinton led in Los Angeles County by 8 points, 42% to 34%, down from a 16 point lead earlier, and also was favored by 10 points in “other Northern California”. Obama had a 41% to 31% lead in the san Francisco Bay Area where Clinton previously had led by 9 points. In “other Southern California” the race is statistically even.

There is a gender gap, with women favoring Clinton 40% to 27% while Obama receives 44% of the male vote to Clinton’s 31%.

The candidates split the white, non-Hispanic vote. In the 20% of the electorate expected to be Latino, Clinton is favored by 52% to Obama’s 19%, but a full 20% were undecided. In a small sample, but with interpretable results, Obama had the support of 55% of black voters and Clinton 19%. Obama might have an edge in “Asian/other” voters, but the sample size is small here and the numbers close.

Obama has a strong lead with voters under 29 and Clinton has a strong lead with voters 65 and older. But also in these youngest and oldest voting groups are the largest undecided percentages of voters. For voters between 30 and 64, the middle aged cohorts, Obama’s lead is within the margin of error and is basically tied.

Obama has a strong lead amongst liberals and Clinton has strong leads amongst conservative voters with middle-of-the-road voters leaning towards Clinton.

Clinton had a 44% to 19% lead amongst those with high school or less education. Obama has a 42% to 31% lead in those with post-graduate work and perhaps a lead with those who are college graduates, while those with some college or trade school break evenly.

Clinton leads with lower income voters in the primary, while Obama leads with those with higher incomes.

Some of these patterns are predictable. The trend in the period of this poll towards Obama is unmistakable. But be ready for the unexpected as those pesky voters actually cast their ballots.

Vote! California matters.

Posted on February 03, 2008

Comments

This CA voter is voting for Hillary!

Posted by: Carol at February 3, 2008 10:31 AM

This election reminds me of Kennedy vs. Nixon: The old political hack that can cry on cue vs. an exciting new candidate with vision and a spark to inspire some traditionally non-political people.

Just a comment- When I led a 198 mile walk across New Jersey last summer, having 28 kids plant over 1,000 trees, and raise all their own money (these were kids from at-risk neighborhoods) we got a long letter from Obama, eloquently congratulating the kids and telling them about taking the road less travelled (it's on our website at www.walkabout2007.org- click on News). I wanted to have all candidates equally represented, so I wrote Hillary. All I got back was a letter telling me how I could help her get elected.

California, it's really in your hands. You can change our political future. Don't hand the election to the Republicans once again. Honestly, between Hillary and McCain, I might go with McCain, only because if I want an insider, I want one with military experience. If I want vision and energy, I'll go with Obama. And this is coming from someone who voted for Reagan.

I might not convince anyone by this little missive. Still consider this- I do not agree with Obama's politics. He's way too socialistic for me. Yet, I think he'll ask himself - What's in the best interest of this country? And he'll make his decisions based upon that, not upon self-aggrandizing interest. I'll vote for the person who has vision over the person with experience, or who shares my politics, any day.

Consider this too- you live next to a house with the paint peeling off and the shutters hanging by a nail. The homeowner who moves in next chooses to paint the house pink. You may not like pink, but perhaps you'd just be happy someone is moving in that has the energy and vision to paint the place, rather than having someone moving in who has plenty of experience living in dilapidated houses, and is therefore much more comfortable with the status quo.

California is the make or break state in these primaries. Please, please change history. Vote for Obama, really.

Posted by: frank at February 3, 2008 08:54 PM

My fellow Americans, I have been listening to the voices of countless Americans, without specfic number as I have traveled this country, preaching the Gospel of Christ Jesus the King: I want to EMPHASIZE the urgency of the situation we find ourselves in:

My fellow Americans, the economy, Iraq and our image abroad are the overwhelming challenges confronting us in the 21st century. The stakes in this election are so very high, and it will take a leader with Hillary Clinton’s strength, will, resolve, determination and experience to tackle the challenges we face. Not only is she the best qualified candidate, Hillary Rodham Clinton will win in November, take back the White House, and deliver real tangible and VALID results for America and globally by creating a strong, secure, prosperous and globally respected America, AGAIN.

My fellow Citizens, NO candidate (republican/ democrat) approaches the power and promise of Hillary Rodham Clinton. Clinton has used all of her time in the Senate to establish herself successfully as a genuine and sincere political and economic powerhouse. Moreover, Clinton offers Americans a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to break the world's most prominent glass ceiling and elect a female President of the United States of America. I will say this again for my fellow Americans: NO candidate (republican/ democrat) approaches the power and promise of Hillary Rodham Clinton. Clinton has used all of her time in the Senate to establish herself successfully as a genuine and sincere political and economic powerhouse. Moreover, Clinton offers Americans a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to break the world's most prominent glass ceiling and elect a female President of the United States of America. I beleive with all of me that Senator Clinton is showing American women that they can aspire to lead our great nation and be taken seriously. If Hillary should succeed, America and the world would be changed forever and for the better.

Fellow Americans, there will be a clear choice November 2008, and I strongly believe that Hillary Clinton's life has prepared her to lead our country, the country we love so very much in the transcendent challenge of the 21st century. God bless Hillary Clinton, our next President for a secure, strong, prosperous and globally respected America. God Bless America. Reverend Felton McBride, Los Angeles California

Posted by: Reverend Felton McBride, Los Angeles California at February 4, 2008 06:08 AM

I think that there may be some serious errors in the counting of the votes in California.

Will the new secretary of State of California require a recount?
She better do something!

Posted by: skeptic at February 6, 2008 12:56 AM

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