PPIC Poll Finds California Voters Evenly Divided on Prop 93—Term Limits Reform—42 to 42%

But as to the “transition period”—allowing current legislators to serve a total of 12 consecutive years in the house in which they are currently serving regardless of any prior service in another house, they are opposed by a 505 to 38% margin. Here there is a partisan divide, with Democrats in favor by 46% to 42%, Republicans opposed by 63% to 26%, and independents opposed by 49% to 39%.

Summing up why we have a tie in this snapshot of public opinion, PPIC President Mark Baldassare told me voters “like some things and don’t like others” in the proposition.

Prop 93 is strongly ahead in Los Angeles by a margin of 46% to 38% and is ahead in the San Francisco Bay Area 44% to 40%. It is behind in the Central Valley 41% to 45% and in “Other Southern California” 40% to 45%.

There were two subgroups that have some startling responses. For some reason there is a large gender gap on this one. Both men and women support the measure at 42%. But when it comes to opposition 46% of the men would vote no and only 37% of women say they would vote no. That is a 9 point gap that Baldassare could not explain. Also, 21% of women are undecided, compared to 12% of men. If this is consistent with internal polls of the campaigns here, expect a large targeting of women in advertising and other communication and persuasion efforts.

The other counterintuitive finding—near the margin of error of the poll—is that Latinos appear to be less supportive of Prop 93 than white voters. By a margin of 46% to 44% they favor the no side in this survey. White voters by 42% to 41% are opposed. With the no campaign focusing most of its resources attacking Speaker of the Assembly Fabian Nunez, a prominent Latino, (much like the original term limits measure attacked then Speaker of the Assembly Willie Brown) I expect Latinos will be more supportive of Prop 93 than other voters. This is also in the pattern of the Speaker’s region—Los Angeles County—being strongly in favor of Prop 93. Expect a big push from Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and other Democrats in the closing days of the campaign.

The PPIC has both younger and older voters breaking against Prop 93 by 40 to 44%, but those in the 35 to 54 year old group in the middle in support 45% to 39%.

As far as level of education is concerned the measure has the lowest support from those who have completed some college (34% to 48%) and the strongest support from those who have graduated from college (47% to 39%) I guess a little education on this one doesn’t hurt.

Given the recent endorsement of Governor Schwarzenegger and late support from Republican legislators including conservative Senators Battin and Ashburn and Assemblymembers Maze and former Republican leader Plescia (who penned a strong op-ed in support in the San Diego Union-Tribune in support), I would expect the Republican levels of support for this ballot proposition to remain steady--but that it will lose the Republican vote.

Democrats tend to break late in deciding on ballot propositions and there is much the yes campaign can do with endorsements by the California Democratic Party, Lt. Governor John Garamendi, San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom, and Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, and others including organizations that have pull within the Democratic Party. I expect there will be more Democratic support for this measure and it will win a majority of Democrats who cast ballots.

The state’s independent and non Democratic or Republican voters can be swayed by good government groups such as California Common Cause who recently have come out in support of Prop 93. It may still lose amongst these voters.

The race is fluid, and with two polls now showing it tied, and with many vote by mail voters having already cast their ballots, a surge in the electorate who show up to vote can send this one either way.