New PPIC Poll Shows Clinton Leading Obama 43-28 in California; Pollster Says Race not Settled

PPIC found a significant gender gap. Clinton leads more narrowly amongst men 35% to 30%, but has a 22 point advantage with women, 48% to 26%. Women voters outnumber men in the Democratic primary and play a significant role in this election.

Democrats are far more enthusiastic about the choices they have for President than Republicans. When asked about satisfaction in their choices, 77% of Democrats said they were versus only 52% of Republicans, a 25 point gap that bodes well for the Democrats in the Fall election.

I asked Baldassare about turnout and the makeup of the electorate for the primary. In the last Presidential primary turnout was 54% and he expects there to be a heavier turnout in this election, as high as 60% from responses to the poll’s likely voter screen questions. He also expects a higher turnout from Democrats and “independents” than Republicans. Democrats have a 9 point advantage in voter registration, but normally this is lower in those who actually vote. This time, he expects a 10 to 13 point spread with more Democrats than usual voting. He noted the response to enthusiasm of partisans as to candidates for President. He also said that about 4 in 10 decline-to-state voters who are not affiliated with a party and who can vote in the Democratic primary had indicated they would be asking for a Democratic ballot, up from the usual 2 in 10 DTS response.

88% of likely voters say they are following news about candidates in the presidential election closely and this is running high amongst all political groups.

There was a big hue and cry from skeptics about the move of the California primary and predictions that our vote would not matter in the race for the presidency and that this was solely being done for the term limits measure on the ballot. Well, by a whopping 88% to 11%, likely voters say that the California primary is playing an important role in selecting the presidential candidates for the 2008 election. Amongst Democrats, 91% hold that opinion (55% “very important,” 36% “somewhat important.” Republicans agree at 88% and so do independents at 88%. Curiously, there’s a gender gap here as well—with 92% of women saying it’s important versus 83% of men. Women are also happier than men with their choices by a margin of 68% to 61%.

By a margin of 57% to 24%, likely voters think moving the primary up from June to February was a good idea, with Democrats the most enthusiastic at 62% and even Republicans agreeing this was a good idea by a margin of 55% to 27%. (Remember, not a single Republican legislator supported the move of the primary.)