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New California Field Poll Shows Term Limits and Tribal Slot Machines Expansion Initiatives “Too Close to Call”

Your Vote May Make a Difference on Important Ballot Propositions

frankrusso-small.jpg By Frank D. Russo

The California Field Poll has just issued new results that show, according to its director Mark DiCamillo, that as to Prop 93 on term limits and Propositions 94 to 97 on tribal gaming, “the outcomes of each are very much in doubt.”

Prop 39: Term Limit Reform

Field’s findings, taken between January 14 and 20, shows Prop 39 to reform term limits is tied with 39% in support and 39% in opposition with 22% undecided. It had been ahead in Field’s previous polling in December. The biggest decline has been in the state’s Republican voters who had favored the initiative 47% to 25% and now oppose it 38% to 46%. Democratic support is still in support by 39% to 33%, but lower than before. The “non-partisan/others” are evenly divided with 41% in support and 40% opposed, well within the margin of error of the poll of 3.4%.

The trend line for Prop 93 does not look good for its passage, but there are other indications that the vote may be close. Most ballot propositions need to start out far ahead, as did Prop 93, but then see support slip as the opposition campaign sows seeds of doubt in the voters. However, Field also found 22% of likely voters are undecided, including a huge 28% of Democrats likely to vote. Field further found that while voter awareness of Prop 93 is up—65% of likely voters “had heard” of it (versus 25% in December)—a full 35% just last week said they “hadn’t heard of it.” Bear in mind that this is of voters likely to turn out at the polls, and is therefore, a very high number.

DiCamillo noted the closely divided voter preference and stated: “It is expected that in the days leading up to the February 5th election the campaign organizations on both sides of these issues will be continuing their heavy print and electronic media advertising appeals.” Further evidence that this may be very close indeed can be voted in the numbers for those who are voting by mail (VBM) who are expected to be 46% of the overall turnout. VBM voters break 41% in favor and 40% against—statistically tied. This means that amongst those who have already voted, the numbers are close. Amongst the 54% of the electorate expected to vote in their precincts on election day, the numbers may be slightly reversed—37% in favor and 38% opposed, once again within the margin of error. A full 25% of those expected to vote at the polls on Election Day are still undecided. So, the last two weeks leading up to Election Day will be crucial.

Another interesting breakdown is in the age of the votes with those under age 49 in support of Prop 93—by double digits—and those age 50 and up opposed by almost the same margin. If there is a large youth vote turnout in the Democratic primary as has happened in other states, this could bode well for Prop 93.

Somewhat surprisingly, Arnold Schwarzenegger’s endorsement of a yes vote on Prop 93 may have little impact. Field found that it would make 13% of voters more likely to vote for it and another 11% actually less likely to vote for it. If the yes on 93 campaign has the ability to communicate Schwarzenegger’s position to an audience of voters with more of that 13% who are favorably disposed towards the Governor’s endorsement without rattling the cages of the 11%, this could have an impact in a close vote.

Props 94-97: Tribal Slot Machine Expansion

The results are similar on Propositions 94 through 97 in showing a divided electorate with many who are still undecided, but Field’s results show it ahead by 5 points, 42% to 37%, up 3% on the yes side from the prior poll and up 4% on the no side. It is ahead by a 46% to 37% margin in vote by mail (VBM) voters—many of whom have already voted and is statistically tied in those voters expected to cast ballots on Election Day in their precincts with 38% in support and 37% opposed.

Overall 21% of likely voters were undecided as of last week, including 17% who are likely to vote by mail and a large 25% of those who will be voting on Election Day. Voter awareness of Props 94-97 are much higher than they were before (70% versus 27% in December) but a full 30% of likely voters responded as of last week that they “hadn’t heard” of them—a very high percentage. (One wonders who they are given the radio, television, and other bombardment of ads on this hot issue.)

Democrats and Republicans are in support while non-partisan/others break out in opposition, just inside the margin of error of the poll.

There is a very significant geographic variable on Props 94-97. One quarter of the expected electorate in this state is from Los Angeles County and these voters give it a 17 point advantage, 49% in favor and 32% opposed. In all the other regions of the state it is ahead or behind by 1 to 3 points.

Interestingly, Field asked voters this question before then polling on Props 94-97:

“In general, do you favor or oppose expanding the number of casino gaming establishments on Indian tribal lands in California?”

42% of likely voters said they favored it, 43% said they opposed it, and 15% were recorded as “depends/no opinion.”

By a whopping 75% to 13%, those who generally favor expansion of gaming on tribal lands are in support of Props 94-97. By a slightly less 68% to 14%, those go generally oppose this expansion are against these ballot propositions. Amongst those who are in the “depends/no opinion” category, there is support 27% to 17% with a whopping 56% saying they are undecided on these ballot propositions.

Field shows that Arnold Schwarzenegger’s support for Props 94 to 97 make voters more inclined to vote yes by an 18% to 11% margin over more inclined to vote no, a slightly greater favorable result than the same question on Prop 93 on term limits. 68% of likely voters say it will have no effect. Schwarzenegger’s support for Props 94-97 is being widely used in all forms of advertising.

Posted on January 24, 2008

Comments

Hi Frank,

Would you agree that the age discrepancy in "Yes" verses "NO" on 93 is that the older folks are wiser, more life experienced and tired of seeing yet another round of politicians attempt at pulling a fast one on the electorate?

This would dovetail nicely with older folks becoming more conservative (or merely less so liberal) with age. As folks age, they accumulate more experience with life and don't want to lose/compromise what a lifetime of their hard work has accomplished, for them OR their children.

What say you?

A bad advertising campaign is most likely the result of the loss in traction on the "YES" for Prop 93 campaign. All their mailers and TV adds ONLY say how term limits will be "strengthened" and politicians will be "better" with more time in one house, etc. However, the DELIBERATE OMISSION of how this will benefit 42 incumbent otherwise TERMED OUT politicians including the controversial Speaker Nunez/Pro Tem Perata? Well, folks don't like to be deliberately misled and so brazenly too by politicians.

Thanks for your time.

Posted by: Jay Gould at January 24, 2008 07:17 PM

Nobody ever tells us how many Indians are enrolled in the four tribes affected by Props. 94-97. The answer is "About 2,000." They will split up an additional sum of at least $1 billion per year from the new machines. That's about $500,000 per year for each person. Indian casinos were adopted to make the Indians self-sufficient. That's been done; the largest of the four tribes, the Pechangas (Prop. 94), reportedly draw a stipend of about $30,000 per month per person. They don't need more slots to become self sufficient.

Posted by: Bic Ballpoint at January 26, 2008 02:57 PM

Nobody ever tells us how many Indians are enrolled in the four tribes affected by Props. 94-97. The answer is "About 2,000." They will split up an additional sum of at least $1 billion per year from the new machines. That's about $500,000 per year for each person. Indian casinos were adopted to make the Indians self-sufficient. That's been done; the largest of the four tribes, the Pechangas (Prop. 94), reportedly draw a stipend of about $30,000 per month per person. They don't need more slots to become self sufficient.

Posted by: Bic Ballpoint at January 26, 2008 02:58 PM

I find the ads very funny the pro expansion side says the negative ads are paid for by a Las Vegas casino owner and two race tracks. Meaning that these are bad people trying to move into gaming in California I guess.

Who do you think is paying for all the pro gaming ads? The people making the big bucks the wealthy Indian tribes who want to get richer and more powerful. I don’t believe they will give up to 9 billion over 20 years. I’ve heard estimates that it may not even reach ½ that amount.

If expanding gambling into other areas that have existing gambling (card clubs and race tracks)is bad, them any expansion should be considered bad for California.

Posted by: Don at January 30, 2008 12:31 PM

We California voters approved limited Indian casino gambling 10 years ago to help the tribes out of poverty. We were shown pictures of Indian tribes living in squalid condition, and we responded generously and compaasionately. Now certain tribes have become wealthy and seek to take advantage of us, by demanging a further increase in their gambling monopoly, while other tribes remain poor. And our representatives in Albany are taking so much money in campaign contributions from these wealthy tribes, they are not looking after our best interest. Vote NO on these 4 propositions!

Posted by: William P Bengen at February 3, 2008 12:01 PM

In Connecticut, the Pequots (FOXWOOD) and the Mohegan Sun were paying 25% to the State while some of our California tribes wanted to pay essentially nothing. I expect that these include the two tribes against Prop. 94-97 and these are the greedy side of the 94-97 propositions.

Take a look at how much the tribes pay in Illinois and you will see how softly Governor Davis treated the tribes--he gave away the store. Look at the political contributions of the tribes at that time and you will see why he did so. I am not a supporter of Arnold but I must give him credit for trying to remedy the situation that Davis left. A vote against the propositions is a vote for the two greediest tribes. Were they not so greedy, I'm certain they could make similar compacts with Arnold. I 'm sure that the Connecticut arrangements would me more than fair to the California tribes. As FDR said in 1936, "We have earned the hatred of entrenched greed."

Posted by: Arnold Mechanic at February 3, 2008 09:20 PM

As California's great budget falls into a great deficet, it still amazes me how Californians are so pridefull and honary to say no to the four Props. with the market slowing down and our Economy in a tangle we'd rather say no to a new source of revenue, just because these four Native American tribes have been successfull there are some of you out there who now feel they should be held accountable for the entire state of California's troubles. Californians need to know that this is their federally granted right to have gaming as a source of income and how unfair is it to hold their success against who they are there success is not a free ride and their struggles to recieve such oppurtunity were not so easy either, Californians should sieze the oppurtunity on securing more revenue for the State and keep the dollars circulating in the State. California stands to benefit more than it would currently should these Props. go through , thus allowing the Tribes to reinvest their revenues to their local economy , charitable donations and other California benefiting ventures. There are some of you out there who contest this, but please focus on what you believe if you really believe in fairness then lets have Grocery stores , Clothing Stores, Restraunts and all your other places you do your business with be subject to a 25% tax and see if your willing to support the new cost to you the consumer!

Posted by: Sergio Calderon at February 4, 2008 07:15 PM

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