It’s the Economy, Budget, Education, and Health Care That Matter to Californians About Their State Government

There are some interesting partisan divides on what is the most important issue. Jobs and the economy is tops for Democrats. Immigration/illegal immigration is cited by only 5% of Democrats as the most important issue. But immigration is the largest issue for Republicans—identified by 25% of GOP members followed by 24% who name the budget, deficit, and taxes issue. Independent voters feel the most important issue is the budget, deficit, and taxes.

Bad Economic Times on the Horizon

72% of California adults—the highest level recorded by the PPIC—think the state will have bad times financially in the next 12 months. An even higher 745 of likely voters feel this way. The result is across the geographic regions of the state and above 70% without exception.

54% of Californians think we are heading in the wrong direction.

Job Performance Ratings of State Elected Officials

The Governor and the Legislature have declined in approval of their job performance.

Governor Schwarzenegger’s approval rating is down to 50% of all Californians and with 44% disapproval and he fares little better with likely voters at 52% approval and 42% disapproval. As late as December, he basked in 57% approval from all Californians and 63% approval of likely voters. While he retains Republican support (62% to 34%), his is disapproved by Democrats 48% to 46%, and gets 55% to 40% approval from independents. A strong majority of Latinos, 62% disapprove of his performance.

When asked about the plans and policies for California outlined in the Governor’s State of the State address, most who had an opinion had an unfavorable one by 33% to 30%. 37% hadn’t either heard about the speech (29%) or didn’t know (8%). Likely voters were split 32% favorable and 32% unfavorable.

The legislature’s rating has also declined to 34% approval and 53% disapproval, even lower at 27% approval amongst likely voters and there is disapproval of this institution amongst Democrats, Republicans, and independents. The legislature’s ratings as an institution had been improving and recovering from the budget mess of last year and was at 41% of all Californians in December. It has slipped back to the low level of approval it has had in most surveys in recent years.

Nevertheless, most Californians who have an opinion think that the Governor and the Legislature will be able to work together and “accomplish a lot” this year. By a margin of 50% to 42% that is how the state’s residents feel, but likely voters are a bit more skeptical at 44% thinking they will and 47% thinking they will not be able to work together.

The State Budget

At first blush, by a 64% to 28% level of all Californians and a 65% to 27% level of likely voters, there is support for the concept of a constitutional amendment limiting state spending, requiring placing money in a reserve in surplus years, and making budget adjustments throughout the years. However, in talking this over with PPIC President Mark Baldassare and looking at the figures from the last ballot initiative on this, Prop 76 in the special election of 2005, this may have limited appeal as an actual proposal when the concrete effects and language of such a provision are known to the voters who must approve it. Prop 76 also started out far ahead in the polls and was ultimately defeated by the voters 62% to 38%.

There is fairly broad dissatisfaction with the Governor’s proposed budget and across the board spending cuts. It is disapproved by 56% of Californians and likely voters and approved by only 38% in each of these groupings. Both Democrats (68% to 28%) and independents by 56% to 37%)—wide margins—disapprove of this. Only amongst Republicans by 58% to 34% does it find support.

There’s a split on whether the Governor’s budget should have had tax increases in it—and some interesting results later in the poll that show support for specific tax increases for specific purposes. As to whether tax increases should have been in the Governor’s budget, 46% of all Californians said yes and 50% said no—but very interestingly, amongst likely voters 48% said yes and 49% no. Usually likely voters are more conservative than the state as a whole. Maybe they appreciate more the precarious state of the state’s finances.

Amazingly in this time of budget and financial distress, by two to one margins Californians and likely voters favor the Governor’s plan for $40 billion in bonds for water, education, high speed rail, and other infrastructure problems. The numbers are quite high—70% of Democrats and 66% of independents favor this level of bonds—and by a 50% to 42% level even the state’s Republicans are in favor.

Also favored, although narrowly, is the Governor’s plan for early release of “22,000 nonviolent prisoners” by margin of 49 % to 45% of all Californians and 50% to 44% of likely voters.

The Governor’s plan to suspend the minimum spending requirements for K-12 public schools loses right out the door, by a two to one margin, and is a non starter with the voters.

Starting off before specifics as to how to deal with the “budget gap,” the most preferred approach of Californians (41%) and likely voters (44%) is to do it through a mix of spending cuts and tax increases. Another 37% favor doing it “mostly” through spending cuts. 8% of Californians say it should be done “mostly” through tax increases, and another 7 percent favor the state borrowing money and running a budget deficit. The preferred method for Democrats and Independents by a large margin is the combination approach while the mostly spending cuts is the big favorite of Republicans.

Who is trusted to make the “tough choices” on budget and taxes? Democrats in the legislature at 37%, followed by Governor Schwarzenegger at 24%, and Republicans in the legislature down at 18%. In the subgroups, no surprises, only 4% of Democrats prefer the Republicans in the legislature with this task and 60% prefer their Democratic legislators. 8% of Republicans prefer Democrats in the legislature, 42% Republican legislators and 30% the Governor. Independents’ first choice is the Governor (30%), followed closely by Democratic legislators (27%) and those Republicans at 16%.

As an abstract principle, a strong majority of Californians (70%) think that state government can spend less and still provide the same level of services—and 41% say spending could be cut by 10 to 20% without reducing services. However, looking a little more deeply at subsequent responses, Californians are clearly more divided on the preferred size of state government, with 46% preferring higher taxes and more services and 45% preferring lower taxes and fewer services. Go figure.

Far and away K-12 public education is what Californians and likely voters—57% of each say they want to protect the most from spending cuts. This includes majorities of Democrats, Republicans, and independents. Interesting because this is also by far the largest single item in the budget—accounting for roughly half of what the state spends. This is followed by health and human services (19%), higher education (14%) and lastly by prisons (6%). Prisons is what 12% of Republicans, and 5% and 6% of Democrats and independents respectively want to protect the most from spending cuts.

If the state needed more money just to maintain current funding for K-12 education, 67% of all adults and by a 60% to 38% margin likely voters, say they would be willing to pay higher taxes. This includes an overwhelming 77% to 21% of Democrats and 63% to 34% of independents, and is even close with Republicans, losing 465 to 52% with the GOP. Once again, this is the largest part of the budget.

51% of likely voters would support a tax increase to maintain current funding for health and human services with 46% not in favor.

Maintaining public colleges and universities attracts only 44% of likely voters for a tax increase and opposition from 53%.

Raising the top rate of the income tax paid by the wealthiest Californians top reduce the budget gap is wildly supported by a 73% to 25% margin by Californians and a 70% to 27% level of likely voters. The state’s Democrats are in favor 83% to 14%. Independents are in favor 73% to 25%. Republicans are split 50% to 48% in favor.

Increasing the annual vehicle license fee that was reduced a few years ago and raising the state portion of the income tax are disapproved and appear to be nonstarters with voters. The same disapproval is voiced as to extending the sales tax to services that are not currently taxed such as legal and accounting services, auto repairs, and haircuts.

However, there appears to be support for taxing all goods sold over the internet—favored by 56% of adults and 52% of likely voters with large majorities of Democrats and independents in support and Republicans split at 48% to 47% in favor.

Leasing the California State Lottery to a private company is disfavored by a two to one margin.

Health Care Reform Funding Proposition

This is favored by all Californians (60% to 35%) and likely voters (53% to 41%). Only 5% do not have an opinion. Here is the question posed by the PPIC:

“On another topic, a proposition that may appear on the November 2008 ballot would ask voters about a plan requiring all Californians to have health insurance, with costs shared by employers, hospitals, individuals, and government. The plan would be financed through a tax on cigarettes, an employer fee based on annual payroll, a hospital fee, and government funding. Would you favor or oppose this plan?”

This draws 71% of Democratic support and 56% of independents votes, but is opposed 55% to 39% amongst the state’s Republicans. It leads in all regions of the state, and subgroups by gender, race/ethnicity, age, education and household income.